{"id":2061,"date":"2016-06-27T11:23:34","date_gmt":"2016-06-27T09:23:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/leregardlibre.com\/?p=2061"},"modified":"2025-12-13T22:59:03","modified_gmt":"2025-12-13T21:59:03","slug":"see-eu-later","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/leregardlibre.com\/en\/policy\/world\/see-eu-later\/","title":{"rendered":"See EU later!"},"content":{"rendered":"

A look at the news - Nicolas Jutzet
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

Le 24 juin 2016 restera dans l\u2019histoire comme le jour qui a vu l\u2019id\u00e9e europ\u00e9enne se fissurer. Au d\u00e9pouillement, un schisme appara\u00eet ; l\u2019Ecosse et l\u2019Irlande du Nord votent IN, pendant que le Pays de Galles et l\u2019Angleterre prennent la route de l\u2019exil en glissant un OUT majoritaire dans les urnes. Les peuples du Royaume-Uni se sont prononc\u00e9s, et risquent d\u00e9sormais de se diviser, chacun suivant son chemin, en solitaire. D\u2019aucuns trouvent ce choix funeste, irrationnel voir m\u00eame dangereux ; je dirais juste qu\u2019il est in\u00e9dit et repr\u00e9sente un saut dans l\u2019inconnu grisant.<\/p>\n

En votant le Brexit, le Royaume-Uni s\u2019est condamn\u00e9 \u00e0 la volatilit\u00e9, \u00e0 l\u2019incertitude. En face, l\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne, cette amante cocufi\u00e9e, est rageuse. Elle crie \u00e0 la vengeance, voulant \u00e9viter d\u2019autres exodes, et promet d\u2019\u00eatre impitoyable durant les n\u00e9gociations. D\u00e9missionnaire, Cameron laisse une v\u00e9ritable usine \u00e0 gaz \u00e0 son successeur. Avec l\u2019appui du parlement, la ou le nouvel \u00e9lu va devoir invoquer l’article 50 du Trait\u00e9 de Lisbonne pour activer le processus de sortie de l’Union europ\u00e9enne, puis patienter, n\u00e9gocier et enfin finaliser cette longue marche vers une souverainet\u00e9 retrouv\u00e9e.<\/p>\n

R\u00e9ussir son divorce demande de l\u2019intelligence et du pragmatisme, soit malheureusement tout ce que ne poss\u00e8de pas l\u2019UE actuelle. D\u00e9\u00e7ue, elle montre les dents et risque de refuser ce qui est pourtant une \u00e9vidence sur le plan \u00e9conomique. Il faut mettre en place des accords de libre \u00e9change des biens, des capitaux, des personnes et des services, tout en laissant le Royaume-Uni \u00eatre ma\u00eetre de sa politique sociale (baisser les prestations sociales restera toujours plus efficace que des contr\u00f4les aux fronti\u00e8res). Cameron avait par ailleurs r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 n\u00e9gocier dans ce sens, et pr\u00e9sentait un projet d\u2019Europe “light” face au Brexit. Compromis jug\u00e9 insuffisant par le peuple. Difficile d\u2019accepter une semi-souverainet\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Le Royaume-Uni est la quatri\u00e8me destination mondiale des investissements directs \u00e9trangers (IDE), cinqui\u00e8me au classement du PIB, et poss\u00e8de une balance commerciale largement d\u00e9ficitaire (exportations – importations = balance commerciale). On parle donc d\u2019un mastodonte sur le plan \u00e9conomique. Son absence du march\u00e9 unique serait pr\u00e9judiciable pour tous, mais avant tout pour l\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne ! En effet, le Royaume-Uni est un consommateur gourmand sur le march\u00e9 ext\u00e9rieur, et son retrait serait de fait une perte \u00e9norme pour tous les commer\u00e7ants des pays europ\u00e9ens.<\/p>\n

Les britanniques sont paradoxalement en position de force. Le pragmatisme voudrait que des accords bilat\u00e9raux, dans une forme s\u2019approchant de ceux conclus avec la Suisse, soient sign\u00e9s (\u00e0 de meilleures conditions que nos bilat\u00e9rales I et II). Contrairement \u00e0 nous, la Grande-Bretagne aura le courage de peser dans les n\u00e9gociations en regardant de haut cette Union europ\u00e9enne sur le d\u00e9clin. Alors l\u2019UE n\u00e9gociera, ou mourra de son obstination. Si l\u2019on compare l\u2019UE \u00e0 une classe d\u2019\u00e9cole, elle vient de perdre un \u00e9l\u00e9ment brillant, et voit le cancre assis au fond pr\u00e8s du radiateur (la France) prendre plus de pouvoir. Rien de r\u00e9jouissant.<\/p>\n

Le choc sera rude sur le court terme, car toute p\u00e9riode d\u2019instabilit\u00e9 est une \u00e9preuve pour l\u2019\u00e9conomie (on le voit sur les march\u00e9s boursiers, compl\u00e8tement perdus) ; mais une fois l’obstacle surmont\u00e9, le Royaume-Uni (ou plut\u00f4t ce qui en restera), sortira grandi de l\u2019aventure, lib\u00e9r\u00e9 du fardeau europ\u00e9en qui a r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 transformer une belle id\u00e9e en cauchemar bureaucratique. Tout amoureux de l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019une Europe pacifique doit se r\u00e9jouir de ce Brexit ; il doit mener \u00e0 des jours meilleurs. Mais avant, une longue travers\u00e9e du d\u00e9sert nous attend.<\/p>\n

Write to the author : nicolas.jutzet@leregardlibre.com<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

Photo credit: Nouveau Centre<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Regard sur l’actualit\u00e9 – Nicolas Jutzet Le 24 juin 2016 restera dans l\u2019histoire comme le jour qui a vu l\u2019id\u00e9e…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":314,"featured_media":2078,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[644357281],"tags":[1215637,119286966,449179,501212,434562,157129],"class_list":["post-2061","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-monde","tag-accords-bilateraux","tag-brexit","tag-grande-bretagne","tag-libre-echange","tag-royaume-uni","tag-union-europeenne"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nSee EU later!<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/leregardlibre.com\/en\/policy\/world\/see-eu-later\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta 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