{"id":32443,"date":"2020-03-27T18:03:06","date_gmt":"2020-03-27T17:03:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/leregardlibre.com\/?p=32443"},"modified":"2025-12-13T22:53:53","modified_gmt":"2025-12-13T21:53:53","slug":"quest-ce-que-le-brexit-a-deja-change-en-europe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/leregardlibre.com\/en\/policy\/world\/quest-ce-que-le-brexit-a-deja-change-en-europe\/","title":{"rendered":"What has the Brexit already changed in Europe?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Le Regard Libre N\u00b0 60<\/a> - Cl\u00e9ment Guntern<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even though the UK's exit from the European Union had not yet taken place, and negotiations on the future relationship between the two partners are ongoing, the Brexit has already changed Europe quite a bit. Here's a quick overview.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

On en avait tellement parl\u00e9 depuis 2016 qu\u2019il faisait presque partie des meubles, mais voil\u00e0 qu\u2019il est enfin devenu r\u00e9alit\u00e9: le Brexit a \u00e9t\u00e9 act\u00e9. Dans l\u2019indiff\u00e9rence g\u00e9n\u00e9rale, pourrait-on dire. Car Britanniques comme Europ\u00e9ens ne l\u2019esp\u00e9raient plus ou d\u00e9siraient qu\u2019il advienne dans les plus brefs d\u00e9lais. Quatre ans de disputes, de n\u00e9gociations complexes et d\u2019interminables d\u00e9bats \u00e0 Westminster qui, \u00e0 coup s\u00fbr, ont laiss\u00e9 des traces dans l\u2019Europe enti\u00e8re. Tous les \u00e9v\u00e9nements et les non-\u00e9v\u00e9nements, les diff\u00e9rentes \u00e9tapes et les rebondissements de ces quatre ans entre le vote et le Brexit seraient \u00e9videmment trop longs \u00e0 r\u00e9capituler ici. En revanche, il conviendrait de faire un pas de c\u00f4t\u00e9 et de se demander: en quoi le Brexit a-t-il d\u00e9j\u00e0 chang\u00e9 l\u2019Europe?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Read also: Brexit, la fausse bonne id\u00e9e d’un r\u00e9f\u00e9rendum<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nous savons d\u2019ores et d\u00e9j\u00e0 que la p\u00e9riode qui s\u2019annonce, \u00e0 savoir celle de la n\u00e9gociation de la relation future, sera encore plus incertaine et plus tendue que la pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente. Celle-ci ne devait que permettre un d\u00e9part ordonn\u00e9 du Royaume-Uni. Le premier aspect, et le plus \u00e9vident, est que l\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne se retrouve diminu\u00e9e territorialement et d\u00e9mographiquement, de 512 \u00e0 446 millions environ. Ces pertes sont significatives au niveau mondial et diminuent la force que repr\u00e9sente l\u2019UE. Ce sont autant de consommateurs qu\u2019elle perd, alors que sa capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 peser dans le monde se base en grande partie sur eux: ces centaines de millions de consommateurs, par ce qu\u2019ils ach\u00e8tent, sont \u00e0 la base du pouvoir normatif de l\u2019UE. De plus, en coupant en deux les \u00eeles britanniques, le Brexit isole davantage l\u2019Irlande du reste de ses partenaires continentaux. On peut \u00e9galement penser que le Brexit a rendu l\u2019Union un peu moins globale, en perdant toutes les connexions historiques du Royaume-Uni.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Une multitude d\u2019Europes possibles<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

A partir du moment du vote, et plus encore depuis sa sortie effective, le Brexit a d\u00e9j\u00e0 chang\u00e9 politiquement le continent qu\u2019est l\u2019Europe. Jusqu\u2019alors, l\u2019histoire de l\u2019UE n\u2019avait connu qu\u2019un seul sens. Malgr\u00e9 des p\u00e9riodes de stagnation du projet europ\u00e9en, celui-ci n\u2019avait jamais fait l\u2019exp\u00e9rience d\u2019un r\u00e9tr\u00e9cissement. A partir des Etats fondateurs, la Communaut\u00e9 \u00e9conomique europ\u00e9enne, puis l\u2019Union Europ\u00e9enne, a recueilli plusieurs vagues de nouveaux membres, \u00e9tendant ses fronti\u00e8res du Portugal aux pays baltes. Le mot d\u2019ordre, inscrit dans les trait\u00e9s europ\u00e9ens, \u00abprogresser vers une union toujours plus \u00e9troite entre les peuples\u00bb, a certainement connu un coup d\u2019arr\u00eat. Pour la premi\u00e8re fois, l\u2019Union recule et il va falloir vivre avec cette possibilit\u00e9. Maintenant qu\u2019un exemple de sortie ordonn\u00e9e, mais complexe, a \u00e9t\u00e9 donn\u00e9, l\u2019impossibilit\u00e9 d\u2019une sortie a \u00e9t\u00e9 invalid\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Read also: Macron et l’Europe de la puissance<\/a> <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le Brexit a donc rappel\u00e9 aux populations des Etats membres que l\u2019Europe n\u2019est pas l\u2019UE, chose pourtant d\u00e9j\u00e0 bien connue en Suisse. L\u2019Europe ne se limite pas \u00e0 Bruxelles et une multitude d\u2019autres voies sont envisageables pour un pays, m\u00eame si elles ne sont peut-\u00eatre pas plus enviables que l\u2019int\u00e9gration \u00e0 l\u2019Union. Au moins, le Brexit a rappel\u00e9 que l\u2019UE n\u2019est pas une fatalit\u00e9 et que le projet europ\u00e9en n\u2019est pas lin\u00e9aire; contrairement au discours de certains politiciens estimant que l\u2019Union est la seule possibilit\u00e9. Le b\u00e9mol sur cet enseignement du Brexit est \u00e0 mettre sur le fait que ce n\u2019est pas n\u2019importe quel pays qui a choisi sa sortie. Est-ce qu\u2019un pays comme l\u2019Autriche ou la Belgique pourrait r\u00e9ussir un tel divorce? C\u2019est peu probable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Un essor de l\u2019id\u00e9e ind\u00e9pendantiste<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Mais le Brexit n\u2019a pas seulement chang\u00e9 l\u2019Union Europ\u00e9enne sur le plan politique. Il a troubl\u00e9 la politique britannique avant toutes choses. Cependant, la question des diff\u00e9rentes nations qui composent le Royaume-Uni concerne toujours Bruxelles. Le Brexit a raviv\u00e9 le d\u00e9bat ind\u00e9pendantiste en Irlande du Nord et surtout en Ecosse. C\u2019est une nouvelle donne pour le gouvernement \u00e0 Londres, qui va devoir composer avec les demandes qui se font de plus en plus pressantes depuis Edimbourg: est-ce que, au final, l\u2019UE ne retrouvera pas bient\u00f4t un vingt-huiti\u00e8me membre? Le Brexit, en tout cas, a modifi\u00e9 les \u00e9quilibres au sein m\u00eame du pays entre les diff\u00e9rentes composantes de la nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De plus, durant ces quatre ann\u00e9es, le v\u00e9n\u00e9rable parlement de Westminster a \u00e9t\u00e9 mis \u00e0 rude \u00e9preuve. Les votes se sont encha\u00een\u00e9s sans trouver d\u2019issues positives. L\u2019agitation \u2013 voire le chaos \u2013 au bord de la Tamise nous a pouss\u00e9s \u00e0 jeter un regard nouveau sur les institutions britanniques. La question de son ad\u00e9quation avec notre \u00e9poque a \u00e9t\u00e9 pos\u00e9e, au vu notamment de l\u2019absence d\u2019une constitution formelle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From partner to rival, the strategic question<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

L\u2019\u00e9l\u00e9ment que le Brexit a le plus chang\u00e9 depuis quatre ans est peut-\u00eatre le moins visible \u00e0 court terme. Puisque le Royaume-Uni est devenu un Etat tiers, ses int\u00e9r\u00eats strat\u00e9giques vont pouvoir diff\u00e9rer encore plus fortement. La sortie du Royaume-Uni de l\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne a cr\u00e9\u00e9 un concurrent, si ce n\u2019est un rival, aux portes de l\u2019UE. C\u2019est une situation pour ainsi dire neuve en Europe. En effet, le Royaume-Uni, ce n\u2019est pas la Russie ou la Turquie \u00e9conomiquement, ce n\u2019est pas non plus la Suisse, la Norv\u00e8ge ou l\u2019Islande d\u00e9mographiquement. De ce simple fait, le Brexit a modifi\u00e9 la situation strat\u00e9gique en Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Read also: Fran\u00e7ois Asselineau: \u00abJ’ai cr\u00e9\u00e9 mon parti par d\u00e9sespoir\u00bb<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le Royaume-Uni, d\u2019apr\u00e8s les discours de son Premier ministre Boris Johnson, compte jouer la carte de la concurrence avec l\u2019UE. Maintenant que son pays n\u2019est plus soumis aux r\u00e8gles de rigueur budg\u00e9taire, Johnson a pr\u00e9vu de lancer, au moyen d\u2019emprunts, de tr\u00e8s importants investissements (sant\u00e9, infrastructures, \u00e9conomie) et de faire exploser le budget. Et si sa strat\u00e9gie fonctionnait? Et si l\u2019\u00e9conomie britannique, malgr\u00e9 les pr\u00e9visions des \u00e9conomistes, ne reculait pas, mais croissait apr\u00e8s le Brexit? Cela ferait du Royaume-Uni un rival d\u00e9rangeant pour l\u2019UE.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La question se pose d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e0 Bruxelles de la cohabitation avec un rival strat\u00e9gique \u00e0 ses portes: que faire si la politique de Johnson r\u00e9ussissait \u00e0 court ou moyen terme? Peut-\u00eatre faudrait-il revoir certains principes fondamentaux\u2026 En tout cas, le Brexit pose aussi la question de la strat\u00e9gie \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle mondiale: faudra-t-il \u00eatre inflexible avec son voisin proche tandis que des superpuissances comme la Chine et les Etats-Unis menacent d\u00e9j\u00e0 strat\u00e9giquement l\u2019UE?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alors m\u00eame que le Brexit, au sens large, en incluant les n\u00e9gociations actuelles, n\u2019est pas encore termin\u00e9, il a d\u00e9j\u00e0 produit une multitude d\u2019effets sur l\u2019Europe: le continent s\u2019est retrouv\u00e9 un peu plus morcel\u00e9 politiquement et l\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne, amput\u00e9e d\u2019un membre important, se trouve, au final, peut-\u00eatre plus unie qu\u2019auparavant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Write to the author: clement.guntern@leregardlibre.com<\/a><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

From partner to rival, the strategic question<\/p>","protected":false},"author":325,"featured_media":32447,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[644357281],"tags":[48028,644343451,119286966,644345386,3867152,157129],"class_list":["post-32443","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-monde","tag-angleterre","tag-boris-johnson","tag-brexit","tag-ecosse","tag-independantisme","tag-union-europeenne"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nQu'est-ce que le Brexit a d\u00e9j\u00e0 chang\u00e9 en Europe?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/leregardlibre.com\/en\/policy\/world\/quest-ce-que-le-brexit-a-deja-change-en-europe\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" 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