{"id":38880,"date":"2021-03-04T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-03-04T05:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/leregardlibre.com\/?p=38880"},"modified":"2025-12-13T22:51:46","modified_gmt":"2025-12-13T21:51:46","slug":"reading-pascal-couchepins-demographic-shock","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/leregardlibre.com\/en\/policy\/world\/reading-pascal-couchepins-demographic-shock\/","title":{"rendered":"Pascal Couchepin's reading: \u00abLe Choc d\u00e9mographique\u00bb (The demographic shock)\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"

Le Regard Libre N\u00b0 71<\/a> -<\/em> Pascal Couchepin<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Each month, we feature a column by one of the personalities who give us the pleasure of alternating between the two. Current affairs, history, politics and philosophy: former Federal Councillor Pascal Couchepin's readings.<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The French have a particular affinity for demographic issues. The origin of this interest, in the past, was linked to geostrategic considerations. After the defeat of 1870, Germany's demographic vitality was a cause for concern. But as far back as the Renaissance, the great jurist Bodin said that there is no wealth but Man. Louis XIV's fortification specialist, Vauban, believed that \u00abthe greatness of a sovereign is measured by the number of his subjects\u00bb. Today, demographic trends are fuelling the anxiety of some of our contemporaries, who are convinced that they are witnessing the \u00abgreat replacement\u00bb of \u00abnative Europeans\u00bb by immigrants from other cultures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

In German-speaking countries, until recently - probably for historical reasons - demographic issues provoked reticence. They were a matter of personal choice, in which the state had no business interfering. Immigration was dealt with primarily from the angle of security or the additional infrastructure it imposed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Bruno Tertrais, in Demographic shock<\/em>, The demographic question is thus at the heart of all contemporary social issues: resources, climate, conflicts, migrations, urbanization, education, religions, employment, pensions, health...\u00ab. With Tertrais, we approach these burning issues by basing ourselves on facts, confronting reality with spontaneous assertions. The future can be imagined, with a certain degree of precision within a generation, or around thirty years, but with a great deal of uncertainty beyond that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n

For the near future, the major trends are demographic decline - at different rates from one country to another - in China, Europe (more marked in the east than in the west) and Russia (decline temporarily masked by the annexation of Crimea). On the contrary, India and above all sub-Saharan Africa are set to grow. The record is held by Niger, with 8.4 children per woman in the Maradi region, 23 million inhabitants today, 49 million in 2035, 65 million in 2050. As for the United States, thanks to immigration, it is maintaining a good level, but far behind India, China and even Nigeria, another African country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n