{"id":510926,"date":"2022-09-03T10:01:40","date_gmt":"2022-09-03T08:01:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/leregardlibre.com\/?p=510926"},"modified":"2025-12-13T22:51:04","modified_gmt":"2025-12-13T21:51:04","slug":"war-in-the-taiwan-strait-the-three-scenarios","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/leregardlibre.com\/en\/politique\/monde\/guerre-dans-le-detroit-de-taiwan-les-trois-scenarios\/","title":{"rendered":"War in the Taiwan Strait: three scenarios"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class='content_excerpt'>\n<p class=\"has-drop-cap\"><strong>The fateful moment is approaching. Never before has the People's Republic of China (PRC) been so ready to undertake its historic mission: to complete the reunification of China and wash away the affronts of a century of humiliation. Beijing has long been preparing for this, as have Taipei and Washington. While all options are on the table, there is no guarantee that this operation will be the prelude to a new confrontation between the great powers. Here are three main scenarios, and the issues that underlie them.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Read the analysis (subscribers)\n    <div class='restricted_content_fade'><\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  <style>\n    .content_excerpt{\n      position: relative;\n    }\n    .content_excerpt .restricted_content_fade{\n      position: absolute;\n      bottom: 0;\n      left: 0;\n      right: 0;\n      height: 75px;\n\t  margin-bottom: 0px;\n      background-image: linear-gradient(#ffffff2e, white);\n    }\n\n    .restricted_content{\n      margin-top: 30px;\n      border: solid #dddddd 1px;\n      border-radius: 7px;\n      padding: 30px;\n    }\n    \n    .restricted_content .restricted_content_title{\n      font-size: 22px;\n      font-weight: 600;\n    }\n    .restricted_content .restricted_content_flex_row{\n      display: flex;\n      flex-direction: row;\n    }\n    .restricted_content .restricted_content_image_container{\n      flex: 3;\n    }\n    .restricted_content .restricted_content_flex_column{\n      flex: 4;\n      display: flex;\n      flex-direction: column;\n      margin-left: 40px;\n      justify-content: center;\n    }\n\n\n    .restricted_content_buttons{\n      display: flex;\n      flex-direction: column;\n      width: min-content;\n    }\n    .restricted_content_button{\n      background-color: #f2f2f2;\n      text-transform: uppercase;\n      font-weight: 600;\n      padding: 8px 40px;\n      text-align: center;\n      font-size: 13px;\n      margin-top: 10px;\n      width: max-content;\n      width: 100%;\n      white-space: nowrap;\n    }\n    .restricted_content_button:hover {\n      background-color: #111111;\n      color: white;\n      text-decoration: none !important;\n    }\n\n    .restricted_content_primary_button{\n      background-color: #1F2A68 !important;\n      color: white !important;\n    }\n    .restricted_content_primary_button:hover {\n      background-color: #111111;\n    }\n\n    .restricted_content_text{\n      margin-bottom: 10px;\n      line-height: 1.2;\n      font-weight: 500;\n      font-size: 16px;\n    }\n\n  \n  <\/style>\n  <div class='restricted_content'>\n    <h3 class='restricted_content_title'>This content is reserved for our subscribers.<\/h3>\n    <div class='restricted_content_flex_row'>\n      <div class='restricted_content_image_container'>\n        <img class='restricted_content_image' src='\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/abo_physique.png' \/>\n      <\/div>\n      <div class='restricted_content_flex_column'>\n        <div class='restricted_content_text'>If you have an account, please log in. Otherwise, discover our different subscription packages and create an account from CHF 2.50 for the first month.<\/div>\n        <div class='restricted_content_buttons'>\n          <a href='\/en\/subscription\/' class='restricted_content_button restricted_content_primary_button'>See subscriptions<\/a><a href='\/en\/my-account\/?redirect_to=https:\/\/leregardlibre.com\/en\/politique\/monde\/guerre-dans-le-detroit-de-taiwan-les-trois-scenarios\/'class='restricted_content_button'>Login<\/a><\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class='content_excerpt'>\n<p class=\"has-drop-cap\"><strong>The fateful moment is approaching. Never before has the People's Republic of China (PRC) been so ready to undertake its historic mission: to complete the reunification of China and wash away the affronts of a century of humiliation. Beijing has long been preparing for this, as have Taipei and Washington. While all options are on the table, there is no guarantee that this operation will be the prelude to a new confrontation between the great powers. Here are three main scenarios, and the issues that underlie them.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p> Read the analysis (subscribers)<\/p>\n<div class='restricted_content_fade'><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<style>\n    .content_excerpt{\n      position: relative;\n    }\n    .content_excerpt .restricted_content_fade{\n      position: absolute;\n      bottom: 0;\n      left: 0;\n      right: 0;\n      height: 75px;\n\t  margin-bottom: 0px;\n      background-image: linear-gradient(#ffffff2e, white);\n    }<\/p>\n<p>    .restricted_content{\n      margin-top: 30px;\n      border: solid #dddddd 1px;\n      border-radius: 7px;\n      padding: 30px;\n    }<\/p>\n<p>    .restricted_content .restricted_content_title{\n      font-size: 22px;\n      font-weight: 600;\n    }\n    .restricted_content .restricted_content_flex_row{\n      display: flex;\n      flex-direction: row;\n    }\n    .restricted_content .restricted_content_image_container{\n      flex: 3;\n    }\n    .restricted_content .restricted_content_flex_column{\n      flex: 4;\n      display: flex;\n      flex-direction: column;\n      margin-left: 40px;\n      justify-content: center;\n    }<\/p>\n<p>    .restricted_content_buttons{\n      display: flex;\n      flex-direction: column;\n      width: min-content;\n    }\n    .restricted_content_button{\n      background-color: #f2f2f2;\n      text-transform: uppercase;\n      font-weight: 600;\n      padding: 8px 40px;\n      text-align: center;\n      font-size: 13px;\n      margin-top: 10px;\n      width: max-content;\n      width: 100%;\n      white-space: nowrap;\n    }\n    .restricted_content_button:hover {\n      background-color: #111111;\n      color: white;\n      text-decoration: none !important;\n    }<\/p>\n<p>    .restricted_content_primary_button{\n      background-color: #1F2A68 !important;\n      color: white !important;\n    }\n    .restricted_content_primary_button:hover {\n      background-color: #111111;\n    }<\/p>\n<p>    .restricted_content_text{\n      margin-bottom: 10px;\n      line-height: 1.2;\n      font-weight: 500;\n      font-size: 16px;\n    }<\/p>\n<\/style>\n<div class='restricted_content'>\n<h3 class='restricted_content_title'>This content is reserved for our subscribers.<\/h3>\n<div class='restricted_content_flex_row'>\n<div class='restricted_content_image_container'>\n        <img class='restricted_content_image' src='\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/abo_physique.png' \/>\n      <\/div>\n<div class='restricted_content_flex_column'>\n<div class='restricted_content_text'>If you have an account, log in. If not, check out our different subscription plans and create an account starting at CHF 2.50 for the first month.<\/div>\n<div class='restricted_content_buttons'>\n          <a href='\/en\/subscription\/' class='restricted_content_button restricted_content_primary_button'>See subscriptions<\/a><a href='\/en\/my-account\/?redirect_to=https:\/\/leregardlibre.com\/en\/politique\/monde\/guerre-dans-le-detroit-de-taiwan-les-trois-scenarios\/'class='restricted_content_button'>Login<\/a><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>","protected":false},"author":325,"featured_media":510929,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[644357281],"tags":[9472,54529,699,61091,644344011],"class_list":["post-510926","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-monde","tag-analyses","tag-chine","tag-etats-unis","tag-guerre","tag-taiwan","membership-content","access-restricted"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.5 (Yoast SEO v28.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Guerre dans le d\u00e9troit de Ta\u00efwan: les trois sc\u00e9narios<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Jamais la Chine n&#039;a \u00e9t\u00e9 aussi proche d&#039;une invasion de Ta\u00efwan. 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