{"id":518098,"date":"2023-05-13T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-05-13T04:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/leregardlibre.com\/?p=518098"},"modified":"2025-12-13T22:50:47","modified_gmt":"2025-12-13T21:50:47","slug":"la-fin-de-lhistoire-le-pari-perdu-de-fukuyama","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/leregardlibre.com\/en\/policy\/world\/la-fin-de-lhistoire-le-pari-perdu-de-fukuyama\/","title":{"rendered":"The end of history, Fukuyama's lost bet?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Published six years apart, the futuristic novel Red storm<\/em> by Tom Clancy and Francis Fukuyama's essay The end of history and the last man<\/em> offer a striking contrast: the fear of a world war is followed by euphoria at the victory of the democracies. In his own way, Fukuyama also recounts an unfulfilled future.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

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NOTRE SERIE \u00abLES FUTURS INABOUTIS\u00bb. Dans le monde militaire, on dit qu\u2019aucun plan ne r\u00e9siste \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9preuve de la r\u00e9alit\u00e9. Un constat bien souvent exact en politique \u00e9galement. Les futurs qui paraissaient in\u00e9vitables en leur temps sombrent dans l\u2019oubli, ou sont moqu\u00e9s, a posteriori bien s\u00fbr. Pourtant, s\u2019y pencher \u00e0 nouveau nous \u00e9claire aujourd\u2019hui, autant sur ce que le monde aurait pu \u00eatre que sur ce qu\u2019il est devenu. Ces sc\u00e9narios expriment aussi les craintes et les espoirs de leur \u00e9poque. Et quelquefois, ces futurs possibles que l\u2019on croyait condamn\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019oubli refont surface et il s\u2019av\u00e8re alors, au regard de nouveaux \u00e9v\u00e9nements, qu\u2019ils disent quelque chose de notre \u00e9poque.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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En un sens, Francis Fukuyama incarne parfaitement la figure de celui qui s\u2019est tromp\u00e9. La th\u00e8se du philosophe am\u00e9ricain, aussi marquante que controvers\u00e9e, n\u2019a pas r\u00e9sist\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9preuve du temps. En 1992 d\u00e9j\u00e0, alors qu\u2019il affirmait dans\u00a0The end of history and the last man<\/em>, un essai de philosophie et d\u2019histoire, que l\u2019histoire trouverait son aboutissement dans le triomphe mod\u00e8le de la d\u00e9mocratie occidentale, l\u2019essayiste s\u2019attirait de nombreuses critiques. Sa confiance d\u00e9mesur\u00e9e dans la d\u00e9mocratie lib\u00e9rale et sa pr\u00e9diction na\u00efve de sa victoire finale sur toutes les autres formes de r\u00e9gimes politiques ou d\u2019id\u00e9ologies a depuis longtemps \u00e9t\u00e9 battue en br\u00e8che par la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 elle-m\u00eame.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le futur imagin\u00e9 par Fukuyama s\u2019est r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9 totalement irr\u00e9aliste. Inspir\u00e9 par l\u2019exc\u00e8s de confiance de Washington apr\u00e8s sa victoire sur l\u2019Union des r\u00e9publiques socialistes sovi\u00e9tiques (URSS), fruit de l\u2019h\u00e9g\u00e9monie am\u00e9ricaine, encore loin des guerres sans fin d\u2019Afghanistan et d\u2019Irak, l\u2019ouvrage para\u00eet sorti d\u2019un autre monde\u2026 A lire les journaux, difficile de voir que le futur qu\u2019il pr\u00e9disait s\u2019est r\u00e9alis\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Malgr\u00e9 tout, nous pourrions faire l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se inverse: et si Fukuyama ne s\u2019\u00e9tait pas tromp\u00e9? Est-ce vraiment un futur possible qui n\u2019est jamais advenu? Ou sa pr\u00e9diction a-t-elle tout simplement \u00e9t\u00e9 mal comprise? Et si, malgr\u00e9 l\u2019accumulation des preuves du retour de l\u2019histoire et des id\u00e9ologies, Fukuyama avait raison?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u2019histoire universelle et son ach\u00e8vement<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

La premi\u00e8re fa\u00e7on d\u2019\u00e9valuer \u00e9quitablement son interpr\u00e9tation du futur, exercice permis par plus de trente ans de recul, est de revenir \u00e0 son propos et non pas \u00e0 celui de ses critiques. Quelle \u00e9tait son intention de d\u00e9part?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En tant que disciple de Kant et d\u2019Hegel, Fukuyama estime que l\u2019histoire poss\u00e8de un sens \u2013 vision particuli\u00e8rement exotique \u00e0 notre \u00e9poque relativiste \u2013 et qu\u2019il existe \u00abun point final au processus historique qui [est] la r\u00e9alisation de la libert\u00e9 sur la terre\u00bb. En suivant Hegel, Fukuyama estime que \u00ab[l]\u2019histoire universelle de l\u2019humanit\u00e9 [n\u2019est] rien d\u2019autre que l\u2019acc\u00e8s progressif de l\u2019homme \u00e0 la pleine rationalit\u00e9 et \u00e0 la conscience autonome que cette rationalit\u00e9 s\u2019exprime pleinement dans la d\u00e9mocratie lib\u00e9rale\u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alors que la guerre froide s\u2019achevait, le constat historique \u00e0 tirer \u00e9tait simple: la d\u00e9mocratie lib\u00e9rale a successivement vaincu tous ses ennemis. Elle a remport\u00e9, selon Fukuyama, la bataille id\u00e9ologique mondiale et toutes les autres id\u00e9ologies ont \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9puis\u00e9es ou ont \u00e9chou\u00e9 \u00e0 s\u2019imposer comme alternatives viables. Mais comment en arrive-t-il \u00e0 l\u2019id\u00e9e de la sup\u00e9riorit\u00e9 de la d\u00e9mocratie lib\u00e9rale qui serait le seul horizon pour l\u2019humanit\u00e9? Pour en arriver \u00e0 cette conclusion, Fukuyama estime que deux moteurs alimentent l\u2019histoire universelle: la physique moderne et le besoin de reconnaissance inn\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019\u00eatre humain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le premier de ces moteurs est autant mat\u00e9riel qu\u2019id\u00e9el. L\u2019accumulation de savoir scientifique et technologique a jou\u00e9 un r\u00f4le crucial, cr\u00e9ant les conditions mat\u00e9rielles qui ont permis l\u2019\u00e9mergence de la d\u00e9mocratie lib\u00e9rale en fournissant des innovations technologiques et avec elles une augmentation de la production et donc de la prosp\u00e9rit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique. De quoi favoriser en cons\u00e9quence la mont\u00e9e de la classe moyenne et la demande de libert\u00e9 politique.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le second moteur n\u2019est pas d\u2019ordre mat\u00e9riel. Fukuyama, tout comme Hegel, postule que l\u2019homme \u00absouhaite non seulement \u00eatre reconnu par d\u2019autres hommes, mais \u00eatre reconnu en tant qu\u2019homme\u00bb et donc que sa libert\u00e9 soit reconnue par chacun. \u00abLe d\u00e9veloppement de l\u2019histoire universelle [pourrait] tr\u00e8s bien \u00eatre compris comme les progr\u00e8s de l\u2019\u00e9galit\u00e9 et de la libert\u00e9 humaine\u00bb. A la suite d\u2019Hegel, il con\u00e7oit donc l\u2019histoire universelle comme un dialogue entre les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s \u00abau cours duquel celles qui sont affect\u00e9es de graves contradictions internes s\u2019effondrent et sont remplac\u00e9es par d\u2019autres qui r\u00e9ussissent \u00e0 d\u00e9passer ces contradictions\u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pour Hegel, et Fukuyama le rejoint totalement: \u00ab[L]es principes de libert\u00e9 et d\u2019\u00e9galit\u00e9 qui sous-tendent l\u2019Etat lib\u00e9ral moderne\u00bb conduisent \u00e0 des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s \u00ablibres des contradictions qui caract\u00e9risaient les formes anciennes d\u2019organisation sociale et cela devait donc entra\u00eener la fin de la dialectique historique\u00bb. Et c\u2019est bien \u00e0 cette d\u00e9cennie 1990 que pourrait ressembler la fin de l\u2019histoire, d\u2019apr\u00e8s Fukuyama.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Une vision ang\u00e9lique?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Nul besoin de s\u2019appesantir sur la multitude de contre-exemples survenus depuis la publication de La fin de l\u2019histoire<\/em>: crise de la d\u00e9mocratie aux Etats-Unis, en Europe, au Br\u00e9sil et ailleurs dans le monde, ambitions totalitaires et expansionnistes de Xi Jinping, opposition frontale de la Chine \u00e0 l\u2019Occident, guerre imp\u00e9rialiste de Poutine, r\u00e9volutions manqu\u00e9es dans le monde arabe, stagnations voire r\u00e9gressions d\u00e9mocratiques en Afrique, en Am\u00e9rique centrale ou en Inde.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pourtant, la vision de Fukuyama est loin de l\u2019ang\u00e9lisme qu\u2019on lui pr\u00eate souvent. Plus que de d\u00e9peindre une marche victorieuse de la d\u00e9mocratie dans le monde, sa vision int\u00e8gre la possibilit\u00e9 de retours en arri\u00e8re et de r\u00e9gressions d\u00e9mocratiques. Fukuyama n\u2019ignore pas non plus les graves probl\u00e8mes au sein m\u00eame des d\u00e9mocraties lib\u00e9rales, y compris les mieux \u00e9tablies et les plus anciennes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ainsi, alors m\u00eame que le contexte de la chute de l\u2019URSS incitait \u00e0 l\u2019euphorie (sentiment par lequel il s\u2019est tout de m\u00eame laiss\u00e9 gagner), Fukuyama jugeait opportun de rappeler que \u00ab[l]e nationalisme a jou\u00e9 un grand r\u00f4le dans les guerres de ce si\u00e8cle, et [que] sa r\u00e9apparition en Europe de l\u2019Est et en URSS est bien ce qui menace la paix en Europe non communiste\u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rien ne permet encore de conclure<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Tout n\u2019est pas \u00e9crit d\u2019avance pour notre auteur. Pour reprendre sa m\u00e9taphore, \u00abl\u2019humanit\u00e9 pourrait ressembler \u00e0 un immense convoi de chariots \u00e9tir\u00e9s le long d\u2019une route\u00bb menant \u00e0 une destination repr\u00e9sentant la d\u00e9mocratie lib\u00e9rale. Certains arriveront ou sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 arriv\u00e9s \u00e0 bon port, d\u2019autres emprunteront des routes moins directes, d\u2019autres s\u2019arr\u00eateront en chemin en pensant \u00eatre parvenus au bon endroit puis repartiront, d\u2019autres encore resteront enlis\u00e9s dans les sables.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pour lui, m\u00eame sur un temps long, toutes les possibilit\u00e9s restent ouvertes. Et, surtout, \u00abmalgr\u00e9 la r\u00e9cente r\u00e9volution lib\u00e9rale qui a secou\u00e9 le monde entier, les t\u00e9moignages que nous pouvons recueillir sur la direction de la migration des chariots ne permettent pas \u2013 provisoirement \u2013 de conclure\u00bb qu\u2019il n\u2019y aura qu\u2019un seul voyage et qu\u2019une seule destination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La question de savoir si l\u2019id\u00e9e de Fukuyama repr\u00e9sente v\u00e9ritablement un futur inabouti, paradoxalement, aboutit \u00e0 une impasse. Impasse dans laquelle on chercherait \u00e0 comprendre une large r\u00e9flexion philosophique sur l\u2019histoire \u00e0 l\u2019aune d\u2019\u00e9v\u00e9nements se d\u00e9roulant sur \u00e0 peine trente ans. Si la victoire finale de la d\u00e9mocratie annonc\u00e9e n\u2019est pas \u2013 encore ? \u2013 advenue, il n\u2019en reste pas moins que la p\u00e9riode actuelle, marqu\u00e9e par la r\u00e9surgence d\u2019un front id\u00e9ologique oppos\u00e9 aux d\u00e9mocraties lib\u00e9rales, se profile pour elles comme un test de r\u00e9silience. Quoi qu\u2019il en soit, une question se pose \u00e0 nouveau \u00e0 notre \u00e9poque: est-ce que la d\u00e9mocratie lib\u00e9rale pourra l\u2019emporter sur ses id\u00e9ologies concurrentes?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Write to the author: clement.guntern@leregardlibre.com<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

You have just read an analysis from our print edition (Le Regard Libre N\u00b096<\/a><\/em>). Retrouvez la suite de cette s\u00e9rie \u00abLes futurs inaboutis\u00bb le mois prochain.<\/h6>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>
\n

Francis Fukuyama<\/strong>
La fin de l\u2019histoire et
 le dernier homme <\/em> <\/strong>
Flammarion <\/strong>
2018 [1992] <\/strong>
656 pages<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
Order<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Published six years apart, Tom Clancy's anticipation novel \u00abRed Storm\u00bb and Francis Fukuyama's essay \u00abThe End of History and the Last Man\u00bb offer a striking contrast: the fear of a world war is followed by euphoria at the victory of democracies. In his own way, Fukuyama also tells the story of an unfulfilled future.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":325,"featured_media":518101,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[644357281],"tags":[9472,644358218,644358211],"class_list":["post-518098","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-monde","tag-analyses","tag-francis-fukuyama","tag-les-futurs-inaboutis"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLa fin de l\u2019histoire, le pari perdu de Fukuyama?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u00abLes futurs inaboutis\u00bb, \u00e9pisode 2\/3 | L'essai \u00abLa fin de l'histoire et le dernier homme\u00bb de Fukuyama \u00e9voquait l'avenir des d\u00e9mocraties.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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