{"id":525965,"date":"2024-12-12T08:19:11","date_gmt":"2024-12-12T07:19:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/leregardlibre.com\/?p=525965"},"modified":"2025-12-13T22:50:08","modified_gmt":"2025-12-13T21:50:08","slug":"polls-or-the-art-of-always-being-wrong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/leregardlibre.com\/en\/politique\/monde\/les-sondages-ou-lart-davoir-toujours-tort\/","title":{"rendered":"Polls, or the art of always being wrong"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class='content_excerpt'>\n<p class=\"has-drop-cap\"><strong>THE AMERICAN DREAM IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION (3\/4). Growing polarization, defeat of the polls and the Democrats... This series of articles aims to present some lessons to be learned from Donald Trump's new election as head of the United States.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n (more...)\n    <div class='restricted_content_fade'><\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  <style>\n    .content_excerpt{\n      position: relative;\n    }\n    .content_excerpt .restricted_content_fade{\n      position: absolute;\n      bottom: 0;\n      left: 0;\n      right: 0;\n      height: 75px;\n\t  margin-bottom: 0px;\n      background-image: linear-gradient(#ffffff2e, white);\n    }\n\n    .restricted_content{\n      margin-top: 30px;\n      border: solid #dddddd 1px;\n      border-radius: 7px;\n      padding: 30px;\n    }\n    \n    .restricted_content .restricted_content_title{\n      font-size: 22px;\n      font-weight: 600;\n    }\n    .restricted_content .restricted_content_flex_row{\n      display: flex;\n      flex-direction: row;\n    }\n    .restricted_content .restricted_content_image_container{\n      flex: 3;\n    }\n    .restricted_content .restricted_content_flex_column{\n      flex: 4;\n      display: flex;\n      flex-direction: column;\n      margin-left: 40px;\n      justify-content: center;\n    }\n\n\n    .restricted_content_buttons{\n      display: flex;\n      flex-direction: column;\n      width: min-content;\n    }\n    .restricted_content_button{\n      background-color: #f2f2f2;\n      text-transform: uppercase;\n      font-weight: 600;\n      padding: 8px 40px;\n      text-align: center;\n      font-size: 13px;\n      margin-top: 10px;\n      width: max-content;\n      width: 100%;\n      white-space: nowrap;\n    }\n    .restricted_content_button:hover {\n      background-color: #111111;\n      color: white;\n      text-decoration: none !important;\n    }\n\n    .restricted_content_primary_button{\n      background-color: #1F2A68 !important;\n      color: white !important;\n    }\n    .restricted_content_primary_button:hover {\n      background-color: #111111;\n    }\n\n    .restricted_content_text{\n      margin-bottom: 10px;\n      line-height: 1.2;\n      font-weight: 500;\n      font-size: 16px;\n    }\n\n  \n  <\/style>\n  <div class='restricted_content'>\n    <h3 class='restricted_content_title'>This content is reserved for our subscribers.<\/h3>\n    <div class='restricted_content_flex_row'>\n      <div class='restricted_content_image_container'>\n        <img class='restricted_content_image' src='\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/abo_physique.png' \/>\n      <\/div>\n      <div class='restricted_content_flex_column'>\n        <div class='restricted_content_text'>If you have an account, please log in. 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This series of articles aims to present some lessons to be learned from Donald Trump's new election as head of the United States.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p> (more...)<\/p>\n<div class='restricted_content_fade'><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<style>\n    .content_excerpt{\n      position: relative;\n    }\n    .content_excerpt .restricted_content_fade{\n      position: absolute;\n      bottom: 0;\n      left: 0;\n      right: 0;\n      height: 75px;\n\t  margin-bottom: 0px;\n      background-image: linear-gradient(#ffffff2e, white);\n    }<\/p>\n<p>    .restricted_content{\n      margin-top: 30px;\n      border: solid #dddddd 1px;\n      border-radius: 7px;\n      padding: 30px;\n    }<\/p>\n<p>    .restricted_content .restricted_content_title{\n      font-size: 22px;\n      font-weight: 600;\n    }\n    .restricted_content .restricted_content_flex_row{\n      display: flex;\n      flex-direction: row;\n    }\n    .restricted_content .restricted_content_image_container{\n      flex: 3;\n    }\n    .restricted_content .restricted_content_flex_column{\n      flex: 4;\n      display: flex;\n      flex-direction: column;\n      margin-left: 40px;\n      justify-content: center;\n    }<\/p>\n<p>    .restricted_content_buttons{\n      display: flex;\n      flex-direction: column;\n      width: min-content;\n    }\n    .restricted_content_button{\n      background-color: #f2f2f2;\n      text-transform: uppercase;\n      font-weight: 600;\n      padding: 8px 40px;\n      text-align: center;\n      font-size: 13px;\n      margin-top: 10px;\n      width: max-content;\n      width: 100%;\n      white-space: nowrap;\n    }\n    .restricted_content_button:hover {\n      background-color: #111111;\n      color: white;\n      text-decoration: none !important;\n    }<\/p>\n<p>    .restricted_content_primary_button{\n      background-color: #1F2A68 !important;\n      color: white !important;\n    }\n    .restricted_content_primary_button:hover {\n      background-color: #111111;\n    }<\/p>\n<p>    .restricted_content_text{\n      margin-bottom: 10px;\n      line-height: 1.2;\n      font-weight: 500;\n      font-size: 16px;\n    }<\/p>\n<\/style>\n<div class='restricted_content'>\n<h3 class='restricted_content_title'>This content is reserved for our subscribers.<\/h3>\n<div class='restricted_content_flex_row'>\n<div class='restricted_content_image_container'>\n        <img class='restricted_content_image' src='\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/abo_physique.png' \/>\n      <\/div>\n<div class='restricted_content_flex_column'>\n<div class='restricted_content_text'>If you have an account, log in. If not, check out our different subscription plans and create an account starting at CHF 2.50 for the first month.<\/div>\n<div class='restricted_content_buttons'>\n          <a href='\/en\/subscription\/' class='restricted_content_button restricted_content_primary_button'>See subscriptions<\/a><a href='\/en\/my-account\/?redirect_to=https:\/\/leregardlibre.com\/en\/politique\/monde\/les-sondages-ou-lart-davoir-toujours-tort\/'class='restricted_content_button'>Login<\/a><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>","protected":false},"author":824,"featured_media":525978,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[644357281],"tags":[9472,189091,699,644358422,644358421],"class_list":["post-525965","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-monde","tag-analyses","tag-donald-trump","tag-etats-unis","tag-le-reve-americain-au-lendemain-de-la-presidentielle","tag-presidentielle-americaine-2024","membership-content","access-restricted"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.8 (Yoast SEO v28.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Les sondages, ou l\u2019art d\u2019avoir toujours tort<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Jusqu\u2019au moment du vote, tous les sondages et mod\u00e8les de pr\u00e9dictions \u00e9voquaient une bataille serr\u00e9e entre Trump et Harris. 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