News Mondays - Clément Guntern
The Middle East has not seen the last of its difficulties. Tensions between states and between different religious or ethnic communities are appearing in many countries. A new frontline has been rekindled in recent years with a confrontation between two regional powers, Saudi Arabia and Iran. These two states, each representing a different religious community - Sunnism and Shiism respectively - are at loggerheads throughout the region. The power of Iran, which has adopted a more aggressive stance in the region, strikes fear into the hearts of its Saudi rival, who sees the Islamic Republic of Iran deploying itself in every conflict.
The regional balance is in danger of being upset, and the Saudi counter-attack has been swift wherever Iran is involved. Not least in Yemen, where Iran is supporting the rebels against the government. Saudi Arabia was forced to intervene in this neighboring country with the support of several other Arab countries. In Syria and Iraq too, where the Iranian regime has even deployed men to support the governments in power - Shiite governments, of course. And finally, in Lebanon, where Teheran supports the armed group and political party Hezbollah, itself a fervent Shiite.
In 2016, Saad Hariri, the Lebanese Prime Minister, formed an entente government made up of all the country's factions (Christian, Shiite and Sunni). This Sunni politician is an adversary of Hezbollah, which as we said is backed by Iran. And it's this latter group that the Saudis don't want to see in the Lebanese government, for fear that Iranian influence might grow. So as not to undermine the Saudi kingdom's apprehensions, Lebanon's President Michel Aoun initiated a normalization of relations with Syria on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. Riyadh obviously did not fail to notice this and hastened to act against the opposing camp.
The Lebanese Prime Minister, who has strong ties to Saudi Arabia through his wealth and family, has received significant support for his political party from his Sunni allies. To everyone's surprise, on November 4, Saad Hariri announced his resignation from Saudi Arabia in protest against Iran and Hezbollah's stranglehold on Lebanon. In Beirut, many believe that the Prime Minister was forced to resign under pressure from Saudi Arabia, particularly Lebanese President Aoun.
In this affair, Saudi Arabia was not very skilful in its desire to preserve its influence in Lebanon and combat that of Iran. The Prime Minister left many doubts as to the sincerity of his words, and the kingdom found itself in the position of an interventionist power. The Saudi kingdom has found itself in an uncomfortable position as it tries to show itself as a reliable partner to the West, in order to win their support in the face of Iranian power. In particular, allowing women to drive, which is certainly not just a feminist measure but also an attempt to ingratiate itself with the West.
France seized the opportunity and got Saudi Arabia out of a difficult situation by bringing Hariri to Paris. France has thus repositioned itself somewhat in the Middle East, and can simultaneously honor its special and historic relationship with the country of the cedar.
This westward shift in power threatens an extremely fragile country, divided between several communities trying as best they can to live together after a terrible civil war. The re-emergence of internal divisions by several regional powers can only threaten to plunge this fragile country back into war. This latest episode in the long-distance confrontation between the two powers threatens once again to ravage a country in the region.
Write to the author: clement.guntern@leregardlibre.com
Photo credit: © Radio-Canada.ca
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