The Middle East is far from being out of the woods

Les lundis de l’actualité – Clément Guntern

The Middle East has not seen the last of its difficulties. Tensions between states and between different religious or ethnic communities are appearing in many countries. A new frontline has been rekindled in recent years with a confrontation between two regional powers, Saudi Arabia and Iran. These two states, each representing a different religious community - Sunnism and Shiism respectively - are at loggerheads throughout the region. The power of Iran, which has adopted a more aggressive stance in the region, strikes fear into the hearts of its Saudi rival, who sees the Islamic Republic of Iran deploying itself in every conflict.

The regional balance is in danger of being upset, and the Saudi counter-attack has been swift wherever Iran is involved. Not least in Yemen, where Iran is supporting the rebels against the government. Saudi Arabia was forced to intervene in this neighboring country with the support of several other Arab countries. In Syria and Iraq too, where the Iranian regime has even deployed men to support the governments in power - Shiite governments, of course. And finally, in Lebanon, where Teheran supports the armed group and political party Hezbollah, itself a fervent Shiite.

In 2016, Saad Hariri, the Lebanese Prime Minister, formed an entente government made up of all the country's factions (Christian, Shiite and Sunni). This Sunni politician is an adversary of Hezbollah, which as we said is backed by Iran. And it's this latter group that the Saudis don't want to see in the Lebanese government, for fear that Iranian influence might grow. So as not to undermine the Saudi kingdom's apprehensions, Lebanon's President Michel Aoun initiated a normalization of relations with Syria on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. Riyadh obviously did not fail to notice this and hastened to act against the opposing camp.

The Lebanese Prime Minister, who has strong ties to Saudi Arabia through his wealth and family, has received significant support for his political party from his Sunni allies. To everyone's surprise, on November 4, Saad Hariri announced his resignation from Saudi Arabia in protest against Iran and Hezbollah's stranglehold on Lebanon. In Beirut, many believe that the Prime Minister was forced to resign under pressure from Saudi Arabia, particularly Lebanese President Aoun.

Dans cette affaire, l’Arabie saoudite ne s’est pas montrée très habile dans sa volonté de préserver son influence au Liban et de combattre celle de l’Iran. Le premier ministre a laissé beaucoup de doutes sur la sincérité de ses propos et le royaume s’est retrouvé dans la peau d’une puissance interventionniste. Le royaume saoudien s’est retrouvé dans une position inconfortable alors qu’il essaie de se montrer comme un partenaire fiable vis-à-vis des Occidentaux, afin d’obtenir leur soutien face à la puissance iranienne. Notamment l’autorisation de conduire pour les femmes, qui n’est certainement pas qu’une mesure féministe mais aussi une tentative de s’attirer les bonnes grâces de l’ouest.

France seized the opportunity and got Saudi Arabia out of a difficult situation by bringing Hariri to Paris. France has thus repositioned itself somewhat in the Middle East, and can simultaneously honor its special and historic relationship with the country of the cedar.

This westward shift in power threatens an extremely fragile country, divided between several communities trying as best they can to live together after a terrible civil war. The re-emergence of internal divisions by several regional powers can only threaten to plunge this fragile country back into war. This latest episode in the long-distance confrontation between the two powers threatens once again to ravage a country in the region.

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Photo credit: © Radio-Canada.ca