News Mondays - Clément Guntern
One of the last chapters in Syria's seven-year war is about to open. The Syrian regime's army, which has succeeded in reducing all pockets resisting its authority, is now planning to attack the last rebel stronghold in the north-west of the country, in the Idbilb region bordering Turkey.
Inside, the population is estimated at around three million, including, according to some experts, 20,000 to 30,000 fighters. From the outset, the Idbilb governorate was one of the regions with the strongest opposition to Bashar El-Assad. The strategy of Damascus and its Russian and Iranian allies, with Western support, was, once an offensive had been launched in a region, to disengage the fighters from the local population, as in Eastern Ghouta, and then to offer armed opponents the chance to join the Idbilb region. For some, the aim was to avoid prolonged and bloody fighting, while for others it was to regain control of strategic regions as quickly as possible.
The Idbilb governorate quickly became a «garbage dump» for opponents, in the words of those close to President Assad. The composition of these fighters is not homogeneous. They include both remnants of the Free Syrian Army and jihadists from the organization that formerly emerged from the ranks of al-Qaeda. Above all, there are no elements of the Islamic State organization. This region of northern Syria remains the last hurdle before Vladimir Putin and his acolytes can achieve their goal of eradicating the jihadist movements. However, the final military solution that Syria's sponsors want to put in place is likely to run into a few stumbling blocks, most notably Turkey.
The Syrian, Russian and Iranian trio will certainly have to come to terms with the tricks interests strongly present along its border. As a reminder, in successive operations, Ankara has set up a zone of influence not far from the Idlib governorate, with a military presence that has driven Kurdish fighters out. A Turkish military presence in Idlib itself has been reported, and the risk of direct clashes between Turkish soldiers and attackers is not negligible. Thus, an intervention by the Syrian regime in the province would be a threat to Ankara because Turkey supports rebels there, but also because new refugees are likely to arrive in the country that has already taken in 3.5 million Syrians. Turkey's objectives are to participate in the global settlement of the conflict, avoid jihadist contagion on its territory and contain the Kurds. To deliver the fatal blow, Russia needs Turkey's help if it is to be a political and not just a military victory.
However, a capture of the rebel province would not mean the end of questions surrounding Syria. As has often been the case in proxy wars, Syria may well find itself divided into zones of influence. Not only the Turks in the north, but also the Russians and Iranians, who intervened not just for the sake of Bashar El-Assad, but also to get a return on their investment, will continue to quarrel over the Syrian remains.
Even if the big winners have not yet fully consolidated their gains, the losers are well known. The Syrian people have not finished suffering in their ruined country. All the more so as the issue of reconstruction is already on the negotiating table, and is proving just as complex as the war itself. The Russians and Iranians simply don't have the necessary resources for reconstruction, which would cost between 250 and 1,000 billion dollars. Only the Europeans, followed by the United States and China, have the means, but they are unwilling to spend without democratic counterparts in Damascus. This is the last card in hand for the Europeans, and they're not going to let it go so easily. One thing is certain: the Syrians will continue to pay the consequences of this civil war for a very long time to come.
Write to the author: clement.guntern@leregardlibre.com
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