Idblib, the last battle for Syria?

Les lundis de l’actualité – Clément Guntern

One of the last chapters in Syria's seven-year war is about to open. The Syrian regime's army, which has succeeded in reducing all pockets resisting its authority, is now planning to attack the last rebel stronghold in the north-west of the country, in the Idbilb region bordering Turkey.

A l’intérieur, on estime la population à environ trois millions dont, selon certains experts, 20’000 à 30’000 combattants. Le gouvernorat d’Idbilb fut dès le début une des régions dont l’opposition à Bachar El-Assad fut la plus importante. La stratégie de Damas et de ses alliés russes et iraniens, et avec le soutien occidental, consistait, une fois une offensive lancée dans une région, à désolidariser les combattants de la population locale comme dans la Ghouta orientale, puis de proposer aux opposants armés de rejoindre la région d’Idbilb. Pour certains, le but était d’éviter des combats trop longs et trop sanglants et pour d’autres de reprendre la main le plus rapidement possible sur des régions stratégiques.

The Idbilb governorate quickly became a «garbage dump» for opponents, in the words of those close to President Assad. The composition of these fighters is not homogeneous. They include both remnants of the Free Syrian Army and jihadists from the organization that formerly emerged from the ranks of al-Qaeda. Above all, there are no elements of the Islamic State organization. This region of northern Syria remains the last hurdle before Vladimir Putin and his acolytes can achieve their goal of eradicating the jihadist movements. However, the final military solution that Syria's sponsors want to put in place is likely to run into a few stumbling blocks, most notably Turkey.

The Syrian, Russian and Iranian trio will certainly have to come to terms with the tricks interests strongly present along its border. As a reminder, in successive operations, Ankara has set up a zone of influence not far from the Idlib governorate, with a military presence that has driven Kurdish fighters out. A Turkish military presence in Idlib itself has been reported, and the risk of direct clashes between Turkish soldiers and attackers is not negligible. Thus, an intervention by the Syrian regime in the province would be a threat to Ankara because Turkey supports rebels there, but also because new refugees are likely to arrive in the country that has already taken in 3.5 million Syrians. Turkey's objectives are to participate in the global settlement of the conflict, avoid jihadist contagion on its territory and contain the Kurds. To deliver the fatal blow, Russia needs Turkey's help if it is to be a political and not just a military victory.

However, a capture of the rebel province would not mean the end of questions surrounding Syria. As has often been the case in proxy wars, Syria may well find itself divided into zones of influence. Not only the Turks in the north, but also the Russians and Iranians, who intervened not just for the sake of Bashar El-Assad, but also to get a return on their investment, will continue to quarrel over the Syrian remains.

Even if the big winners have not yet fully consolidated their gains, the losers are well known. The Syrian people have not finished suffering in their ruined country. All the more so as the issue of reconstruction is already on the negotiating table, and is proving just as complex as the war itself. The Russians and Iranians simply don't have the necessary resources for reconstruction, which would cost between 250 and 1,000 billion dollars. Only the Europeans, followed by the United States and China, have the means, but they are unwilling to spend without democratic counterparts in Damascus. This is the last card in hand for the Europeans, and they're not going to let it go so easily. One thing is certain: the Syrians will continue to pay the consequences of this civil war for a very long time to come.

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