Pascal Couchepin's reading: «Le Choc démographique» (The demographic shock)»

Le Regard Libre N° 71 - Pascal Couchepin

Each month, we feature a column by one of the personalities who give us the pleasure of alternating between the two. Current affairs, history, politics and philosophy: former Federal Councillor Pascal Couchepin's readings.

The French have a particular affinity for demographic issues. The origin of this interest, in the past, was linked to geostrategic considerations. After the defeat of 1870, Germany's demographic vitality was a cause for concern. But as far back as the Renaissance, the great jurist Bodin said that there is no wealth but Man. Louis XIV's fortification specialist, Vauban, believed that «the greatness of a sovereign is measured by the number of his subjects». Today, demographic trends are fuelling the anxiety of some of our contemporaries, who are convinced that they are witnessing the «great replacement» of «native Europeans» by immigrants from other cultures.

In German-speaking countries, until recently - probably for historical reasons - demographic issues provoked reticence. They were a matter of personal choice, in which the state had no business interfering. Immigration was dealt with primarily from the angle of security or the additional infrastructure it imposed.

For Bruno Tertrais, in Demographic shock, The demographic question is thus at the heart of all contemporary social issues: resources, climate, conflicts, migrations, urbanization, education, religions, employment, pensions, health...«. With Tertrais, we approach these burning issues by basing ourselves on facts, confronting reality with spontaneous assertions. The future can be imagined, with a certain degree of precision within a generation, or around thirty years, but with a great deal of uncertainty beyond that.

For the near future, the major trends are demographic decline - at different rates from one country to another - in China, Europe (more marked in the east than in the west) and Russia (decline temporarily masked by the annexation of Crimea). On the contrary, India and above all sub-Saharan Africa are set to grow. The record is held by Niger, with 8.4 children per woman in the Maradi region, 23 million inhabitants today, 49 million in 2035, 65 million in 2050. As for the United States, thanks to immigration, it is maintaining a good level, but far behind India, China and even Nigeria, another African country.

However, Tertrais' contribution cannot be summed up in a few figures on population growth. Demography is a science that demands careful, detailed study of every issue, as the author reminds us. The Club of Rome and its 1972 report were very much mistaken. Conversely, while it's true that the demographic growth of recent decades has been accompanied by a sharp decline in world poverty, there's no guarantee that the same will be true in the future. Neither the best of worlds nor the worst are certain. Much depends on political decisions taken in the future. And these are not limited to a single variable, such as climate or migration. Demographic shock helps build the future on concrete facts and scenarios rooted in reality!

Bruno Tertrais
Demographic shock
Odile Jacob
2020
256 pages

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To Pascal Couchepin's previous reading: «The Quran of Historians»