Tensions around the crisis in Venezuela escalate

News on Mondays – Clément Guntern

The issue of migration seems to be gaining prominence across the American continent. From north to south, people fleeing poverty and sometimes oppression—or both—are attempting to reach the other side of the border. The United States, which has long grappled with this issue, is no longer the only country having to deal with migrants and all the challenges that come with them. Two sources of instability have emerged since the beginning of the year. First, Venezuela, which for several years now has been trapped in a spiral of economic crisis and repression. The collapse in commodity prices, U.S. sanctions against the so-called «Bolivarian» regime, and the country’s isolation on the regional stage have fueled unemployment, inflation, and unrest. And as is the case in every authoritarian regime—which is what Venezuela actually is—when the population protests, it is repressed. Furthermore, in Nicaragua, the Ortegas are clinging to power and refusing to compromise with the opposition, which they claim is controlled by the «imperialists.».

As a result, the well-known combination of political instability and economic crisis is driving more and more people onto the roads in search of refuge in a neighboring country or, if necessary, farther afield. According to the UN, more than 2.3 million Venezuelans have fled their country, mainly to neighboring Colombia but also to Ecuador, Peru, Brazil, and soon Argentina. Nicaraguans, for their part, are trying their luck in Costa Rica or much further north in the United States. The sudden and sometimes massive influx of newcomers into a country inevitably causes tensions with the local population—and we in Europe know something about that. This Sunday, in response to the growing presence of migrants and clashes with the local population, Brasília decided to send in the military to calm the situation in towns near the border. Similarly, in Ecuador and Peru, entry requirements for migrants have been tightened.

The internal problems facing Venezuela and Nicaragua are on the verge of escalating tensions with their neighbors and turning into a regional issue. Recently, the assassination attempt on President Maduro did nothing to calm the situation. By immediately accusing its Colombian neighbor, the Venezuelan president is only fueling the tensions already present along the border between the two countries. Indeed, the Venezuelan military has deployed troops along the border with its neighbor, which it has accused—ever since the Chávez era—of supporting guerrilla groups on its territory. History teaches us that a country in the throes of a severe internal crisis—one that accuses its neighbors and enemies, such as the United States, of seeking its downfall—has every incentive to shift its domestic problems onto the international stage. A war—whether open or latent—even if it still seems a distant prospect, remains a possibility for a regime on its last legs.

A conflict would obviously be most unwelcome in Latin America, which has struggled so hard to emerge from years of dictatorship. In Chile, as in Argentina, efforts are still underway to erase the remnants of those dark years; in Colombia, a peace agreement with the revolutionary guerrillas remains up in the air; and Cuba is trying to normalize relations with its neighbors. Generally speaking, the continent is slowly trying to combat the poverty that has characterized it for so long. A regime in serious trouble must not, under any circumstances, put an end to this momentum and to the hope for better days held by many South Americans.

Write to the author : clement.guntern@leregardlibre.com