The long road to Brexit

News Mondays - Clément Guntern

On December 8, the European Union and the United Kingdom agreed on the first stage of Brexit. This involves settling the actual exit from the Union. Discussions focused on the fate of nationals of both entities living with the other, and on the payment of the UK's contribution to the EU as promised until 2020. The final issue concerns the border between Ulster, part of the United Kingdom, and the Republic of Ireland, which, according to the 1998 peace agreements, cannot be a physical border, which poses a problem as it would become an external border of the EU. The latter issue has yet to be settled on its merits, which augurs very lively debates. With these issues more or less settled, the past between the EU and the UK is supposed to be over. Now it's time to consider the future of their relationship - the most difficult question to settle. And for good reason: this first phase has taken almost a year, even though it is supposed to be the easiest to settle.

So the British government is not out of the woods yet. It has to maneuver between supporters of a hard Brexit, i.e. a total exit from the EU, and advocates of opening up to the world. These people want to make the UK more attractive and hope to attract what it will miss from Europe from all over the world. On the other side are the advocates of a softer Brexit, who want to maintain a good relationship with the EU, based on what is already done in Canada, Switzerland or Norway.

While all the country's politics live to the rhythm of Brexit, a poll shows that a majority of Britons would vote against leaving the EU. The gap between the two camps has never been wider since the vote in June 2016. Long gone are the days when sovereigntists and nationalists celebrated the people who, at last, had dared to take on the elites in London and Brussels. The polls had been wrong and the true will of the people was being put forward. What was really celebrated was the stupidity of the people who ran the campaign and the gullibility of the people who followed them.

The first clue is that none of the biggest supporters of Brexit during the campaign dared to take the reins of government, demonstrating their profound unpreparedness and lack of a plan to achieve Brexit. They believe that if the UK turns away from the EU, the country will be able to develop its own trade agreements with countries around the world. Even though it benefits from a large number of agreements within the EU. When the UK leaves, all these agreements will suddenly fall away, and the country will be left without any agreements for some time.

What's more, until the UK leaves the EU, i.e. before 2019, it has no right to negotiate new treaties in advance, as it is still a member state. Finally, agreements already being negotiated with difficulty within the EU will be even more difficult to conclude, given that the UK will no longer have the same weight outside the EU and will not be able to carry as much weight in negotiations.

During the campaign, pro-Brexit leaders made every effort to simplify matters. They dangled the prospect of leaving the EU, ending free movement, controlling immigration and, at the same time, gaining access to the EU's internal market. It was like having your cake and eating it too. It was the same situation in Switzerland with the SVP initiative against mass immigration, which promised immigration quotas and at the same time the status quo on economic agreements. Such reasoning is either a lie, or a lack of reflection on how the European Union works.

Generally speaking, it took an event like this to make some Britons realize the importance of the EU, even in their daily lives. Gone are the days of barrier-free travel around Europe or studying abroad. Above all, they see the complexity of the ties that bind their country and the Union, ties that are very difficult to undo without damage.

The dilemma facing the British is the same as that faced by the Swiss over the past twenty-five years: how to be outside the Union without being marginalized or subservient to it? In a quarter of a century, the Swiss Confederation still hasn't found the relationship that suits it at 100%, while there is still a large number of dissatisfied members. The UK, meanwhile, has until March 2019 to find a solution. The road to Brexit is still very long, and not all the difficulties have yet been encountered.

Write to the author : clement.guntern@leregardlibre.com

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