2027 Federal Elections: Breakaway, Pursuers, and the Sweep Car

With one year to go before the federal elections, the parties are entering the home stretch. The UDC is in the lead, the PS is lying in wait, and a tight race is underway between the PLR and Le Centre: a look at the field ahead of the 2027 sprint.

In my experience, it’s really the penultimate fall session under the federal dome that truly kicks off the election campaign. This final stage of the legislative session begins on October 24, 2027. It’s an opportunity to take stock of the forces at play. Let’s start with the front-runner: the Swiss People’s Party (SVP), which secured more than 27% of the vote in 2023. Based on the cantonal elections, the party has the wind at its back with its key issues: immigration, security, sovereignty, and the ability to tap into current events.

The machine is well-oiled, but beware of overconfidence and derailment—as exemplified by the blunders committed by Thomas Aeschi, the group leader in the Federal Assembly. A sore loser following the rejection of the «No to a Switzerland of 10 Million!» initiative, the Zug native lashed out at Western Switzerland as a whole, a bit too quickly forgetting the electoral potential in that distant region.

This election campaign will resemble a «race against the SVP monster,» to borrow the phrase from the brilliant Antoine Blondin, who was referring to Jacques Anquetil in 1963. The Socialist Party is now trailing by nearly 10 points, while keeping the center-right group well at bay. Party members can look forward to the election with confidence: by the principle of communicating vessels, a good portion of the Greens’ heavy losses will end up in their column.

But beware of straying off course. While well-positioned on social and health issues, the PS is losing its way when it comes to international policy, readily bringing in conflicts such as the one in Gaza. This is such an un-Swiss approach, with a real risk of becoming like La France Insoumise (LFI) through a strategy of community-based clientelism mixed with a focus on youth. An example of this drift: the invitation of the highly controversial French MEP Rima Hassan to the Federal Palace last June.

PLR vs. Le Centre Showdown

For third place, the Liberal-Radical Party (PLR) and Le Centre could very well give us a finish worthy of the 1989 Tour: American Greg LeMond won by 8 seconds, even though Frenchman Laurent Fignon was still in the yellow jersey with a 50-second lead on the morning of the final time trial on the Champs-Élysées. The PLR and Le Centre are now almost tied—at around 14 %—with a slight edge for the former.

The cantonal electoral landscape, however, is more favorable to the Center. While it isn’t gaining much, the PLR is losing significantly more. Observers are unanimous: the Liberal-Radical team exudes a sense of fatalism, an internalized sense that defeat is inevitable. On the other side, the impression is quite the opposite. A centrist team is more motivated than ever to exact revenge: in 2003, the PLR’s alliance with the UDC allowed the “magic formula” to be adapted at the expense of the PDC at the time.

On the policy front, the PLR is struggling to make its mark on the political agenda, with the notable and welcome exception of individual taxation. The president’s surprise departure midway through the legislative term did nothing to help matters. His replacement by a co-presidency symbolizes a clear loss of direction: this model has always been mocked and viewed as a «typically left-wing» dilution of responsibilities. Sometimes, the wheel turns faster than one might think…

In contrast, the pro-family party remains united in pursuit of its common goal. Zigzagging between the left and the liberal and conservative right is now accepted and presented as a sign of wisdom. So far, this relatively wait-and-see strategy has paid off. But a lot can happen in a year. The PLR, for example, could—in “green jersey” mode and fueled by its pride as a long-standing, established party—overtake Le Centre in the final sprint. The only certainty is that the two will undoubtedly be locked in a neck-and-neck race, with the worst-case scenario being the prospect of finishing last—which would mean holding just a single seat on the Federal Council.

Former correspondent in Bern and Brussels,  Romain Clivaz has experience «on both sides» of several divides: media and politics, public and private. For *Le Regard libre*, he roams freely through the back alleys of the news.

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