Midterms, Donald Trump and the end of the empire

Le Regard Libre N° 45 - Diego Taboada

The mid-term elections in the United States have highlighted the fracture separating two Americas. More generally, the situation in the United States may also reflect the moral erosion of an empire that is steadily losing influence.

After long, intense weeks of campaigning in the USA, the ballot boxes have spoken. The Democrats have regained control of the House of Representatives (lower house), lost in 2010, but the Senate remains in Republican hands. There were few surprises this time around, unlike the shock of Donald Trump's election two years earlier. Democrats and progressives of all stripes rejoiced in their «victory», which they believe will finally enable them to put the brakes on a president who until then had no real institutional opposition. The question of launching an investigation into Mr. Trump and his relations with Russia finally becomes possible. More symbolically, the media will remember the election of a good number of women, often from ethnic minorities - Native Americans, Muslims or even openly homosexuals.

A Worrying Polarization

Is this situation really that positive for Trump’s opponents? Can we see it as a massive rejection of a struggling America, weary of their president’s aggressiveness and controversies? Quite the contrary. True, the Republicans lost the House, but the Democrats were banking on an anti-Trump «wave» that never materialized. The president’s party suffered a setback, but this is a common occurrence in these elections: since 1934, only George W. Bush’s Republicans avoided defeat in the 2002 midterm elections, one year after the September 11 attacks. This result therefore «normalizes» Donald Trump’s term in office, rather than signaling a massive rejection of his policies. 

Furthermore, the arrival of Democrats from the party’s left wing and the replacement of some moderate Republican representatives with staunch Trump supporters are likely to create problems in passing legislation, due to the inability to reach compromises. For a president who likes to cast himself as a victim of just about everyone, any deadlock originating in the House of Representatives would be a perfect excuse to cite in the event of a setback. With an eye toward the 2020 presidential election, this situation is particularly favorable to Donald Trump.

Until now, the president has consistently taken credit for the U.S. economy’s performance—unemployment near full employment and particularly strong growth. However, it is unlikely that the measures taken by his administration—massive tax cuts and increases in public debt and the deficit—will be effective in the longer term, with the specter of rising interest rates on the horizon. In the event of an economic slowdown, we can expect Mr. Trump to pin the blame on his Democratic opponents, who would find it difficult to defend themselves. 

It will be all the more difficult for the Democrats to rally around a leader. Obama’s omnipresence during the campaign made it clear that no one among the Democrats was able to step up and lead the party. And although some young figures seem to be standing out—such as O’Rourke from Texas or the young Ocasio-Cortez in New York—it will take more than simply calling oneself a «socialist» to win the White House.

The Illusion of the American Dream Confirmed

But even more troubling is that this is indeed a divided country, signaling a decline that began some time ago. Above all, this political polarization reveals a deeper malaise that is eating away at the United States. On one side is white, male America—economically struggling and nostalgic for bygone days when it was dominant. The resentment of these newly «left behind» people, along with their sense of abandonment, provided the fertile ground on which Trump built his election victory. On the other side are ethnic minorities and women, whose main political goal is to fight against a president who has consistently legitimized attacks and humiliations, creating a climate of hatred that fosters all kinds of abuses.

This stigmatization of foreigners and migration, along with social segregation, stands in stark contrast to what shaped the American myth as early as the 19th century^th century: a welcoming country, built on the meritocratic ideal that people would be judged regardless of their identity or past, but could instead succeed through their own personal effort. Some would say that this «American Dream» never actually existed, and the reality of both the past and the present certainly confirms these criticisms. 

The Moral Decline of an Empire

Despite this paradox in American society, the United States has offset its domestic weaknesses with a hegemonic presence in the world. In a sense, the American «dream» was secured throughout the 20th^th the 20th century and the early 21st century^th thanks to the global influence of its culture and its military and economic power. Today, America no longer represents that driving force of the free world, admired for its culture and political system. That «perfect democratic society» to which everyone aspires is no longer appealing. Now, all we hear are negative reports stemming from the divisive figure of Mr. Trump, who stokes hatred, and the countless mass shootings and tragedies that dominate the headlines. 

Just as every hegemonic empire throughout history has collapsed amid tensions and internal strife, the polarization of American society is also a harbinger of the moral decay of the American Empire. Indeed, as the United States remains mired in its own problems, the center of global influence is shifting eastward. China is on track to become the world’s next economic power. The Middle Kingdom is slowly but surely turning its attention to Africa, a continent with enormous potential that has been neglected by the United States and the European Union, for example. 

One of the root causes of the United States’ failure may also lie in its refusal to accept the new reality of a world in which America is no longer the dominant power. As Daniel Warner said in our publication, the American «winner-takes-all» electoral system—where the winner takes everything—shapes the American mindset. And in a country where there is no middle ground between victory and defeat, it is difficult to acknowledge that one is no longer dominant. This is a long and arduous collective effort, given that the mental frameworks of an entire nation are at stake.

Write to the author : diego.taboada@leregardlibre.com