What has Brexit already changed in Europe?

Le Regard Libre N° 60 - Clément Guntern

Even though the UK's exit from the European Union had not yet taken place, and negotiations on the future relationship between the two partners are ongoing, the Brexit has already changed Europe quite a bit. Here's a quick overview.

There had been so much talk about it since 2016 that it had almost become part of the furniture, but now it has finally become a reality: Brexit has been finalized. Amid general indifference, one might say. For both Britons and Europeans had either given up hope or simply wanted it to happen as quickly as possible. Four years of disputes, complex negotiations, and endless debates in Westminster that have undoubtedly left their mark on all of Europe. It would obviously take too long to recap here all the events and non-events, the various stages, and the twists and turns of these four years between the vote and Brexit. Instead, it would be worth taking a step back and asking: how has Brexit already changed Europe?

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We already know that the period ahead—namely, the negotiations on the future relationship—will be even more uncertain and tense than the previous one. That previous phase was intended solely to facilitate an orderly departure of the United Kingdom. The first and most obvious aspect is that the European Union finds itself diminished both territorially and demographically, from 512 million to approximately 446 million. These losses are significant on a global scale and diminish the EU’s influence. The EU is losing all these consumers, even though its ability to exert influence on the world stage relies largely on them: these hundreds of millions of consumers, through their purchasing power, form the basis of the EU’s normative power. Furthermore, by splitting the British Isles in two, Brexit further isolates Ireland from the rest of its continental partners. One might also argue that Brexit has made the Union somewhat less global by severing all of the United Kingdom’s historical ties.

A Multitude of Possible Europes

From the moment of the vote—and even more so since its actual implementation—Brexit has already brought about political change across the European continent. Until then, the history of the EU had moved in only one direction. Despite periods of stagnation in the European project, it had never experienced a contraction. Starting with the founding states, the European Economic Community—and later the European Union—welcomed several waves of new members, expanding its borders from Portugal to the Baltic states. The guiding principle, enshrined in the European treaties—«to move toward an ever closer union among the peoples»—has certainly come to a halt. For the first time, the Union is retreating, and we will have to live with this possibility. Now that an example of an orderly—albeit complex—exit has been set, the notion that an exit is impossible has been disproved.

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Brexit has thus reminded the people of the member states that Europe is not the EU—a fact that is, however, already well known in Switzerland. Europe is not limited to Brussels, and there are a multitude of other paths a country can take, even if they may not be any more desirable than joining the Union. At the very least, Brexit has served as a reminder that the EU is not an inevitability and that the European project is not a linear one—contrary to the rhetoric of certain politicians who believe the Union is the only option. The caveat to this lesson from Brexit is that it wasn’t just any country that chose to leave. Could a country like Austria or Belgium successfully pull off such a “divorce”? It’s unlikely.

A Resurgence of the Independence Movement

But Brexit has not only changed the European Union politically. Above all, it has disrupted British politics. However, the issue of the different nations that make up the United Kingdom still concerns Brussels. Brexit has reignited the independence debate in Northern Ireland and, above all, in Scotland. This is a new reality for the government in London, which will have to deal with the increasingly urgent demands coming from Edinburgh: will the EU, in the end, soon welcome a twenty-eighth member? Brexit, in any case, has shifted the balance of power within the country itself among the nation’s various constituent parts.

Furthermore, over the past four years, the venerable Parliament at Westminster has been put to the test. One vote after another has failed to produce positive outcomes. The turmoil—even chaos—on the banks of the Thames has prompted us to take a fresh look at British institutions. The question of whether it is suited to our times has been raised, particularly in light of the absence of a formal constitution.

From partner to rival, the strategic question

The aspect that Brexit has changed the most over the past four years is perhaps the least visible in the short term. Now that the United Kingdom has become a third country, its strategic interests may diverge even more sharply. The United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union has created a competitor—if not a rival—at the EU’s doorstep. This is, so to speak, a new situation in Europe. Indeed, the United Kingdom is not like Russia or Turkey economically, nor is it like Switzerland, Norway, or Iceland demographically. By this simple fact alone, Brexit has altered the strategic landscape in Europe.

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According to statements by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the United Kingdom plans to compete with the EU. Now that his country is no longer subject to fiscal discipline rules, Johnson plans to launch massive investments (in healthcare, infrastructure, and the economy) through borrowing and to drastically increase the budget. What if his strategy worked? What if the British economy, despite economists’ predictions, didn’t shrink but actually grew after Brexit? That would make the United Kingdom a troublesome rival for the EU.

The question is already being raised in Brussels about coexisting with a strategic rival on its doorstep: what should be done if Johnson’s policy succeeds in the short or medium term? Perhaps certain fundamental principles would need to be reevaluated… In any case, Brexit also raises the question of global strategy: should the EU take an uncompromising stance toward its close neighbor while superpowers like China and the United States are already posing a strategic threat to the EU?

Even though Brexit—in the broadest sense, including the current negotiations—is not yet over, it has already had a multitude of effects on Europe: the continent has become somewhat more politically fragmented, and the European Union, having lost an important member, may ultimately find itself more united than before.

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