Iraqi Kurdistan: Independence Is Impossible

On September 25, Iraqi Kurdistan held a referendum on possible independence from the Iraqi state. The outcome of the vote seemed a foregone conclusion, given the well-known desire of the Kurdish people to live under their own laws, even though the region has enjoyed a high degree of autonomy since the 2005 constitution took effect. From the Kurdish perspective, this vote is simply the logical culmination of the events that followed the rise of the «Islamic State» in Iraq and Syria—an organization against which Kurdish forces have actively waged fierce battles.

Iraqi Kurdistan and its Peshmerga fighters fought alongside the federal government and the U.S.-led coalition and succeeded in driving Islamist forces out of Iraq at the cost of many casualties. After playing a pivotal role in the country’s liberation and significantly strengthening itself as a region, Iraqi Kurdistan, through its president, gained enough legitimacy to launch a referendum on independence. But this did not take into account the power struggles among the major players in the Near and Middle East. In fact, all the countries in the region, as well as Western nations and Russia, opposed the vote for various reasons. Nevertheless, the referendum took place, and Baghdad immediately took measures against the autonomous region, while leaving the door open for discussions.

A form of betrayal

Over the past week, events have unfolded rapidly, and the federal government has launched an offensive to retake the city of Kirkuk, which the Kurds had occupied after driving out «Islamic State» fighters. This city was not located within the territory of the autonomous region but within Iraqi borders. As a result, a contradiction that had existed since the beginning of the fight against the terrorist organization came to the surface: the U.S. government was relying both on the Kurds, to whom it provided equipment, and on the Iraqi government. The problem lies not only in the conflict between the two forces supported by Washington but also in the fact that the offensive on the Kirkuk region was carried out with the support of Iranian-backed militias. This reversal by the United States was viewed by some as a betrayal.

Iranian Influence

One thing is certain: Baghdad must have sought the go-ahead from the United States, which supported the action. The U.S. has certainly not forgotten Iran’s significant influence within the Iraqi government. Tehran, in fact, seeks to increase its control over the region to prevent the emergence of an independent Kurdish state, which would prompt Kurdish communities within its own borders to demand the same treatment. Kurdistan has been abandoned by the United States, which has sided with Iran on the Kurdish issue. How can we not think of the current climate, in which Trump refuses to support the nuclear deal and wants to tighten sanctions on Tehran?

The End of a Contradiction and Reconstruction

Generally speaking, support for Kurdistan and Iraq was not sustainable in the long term. The United States urgently needed allies on the ground in the war against Daesh at a time when the Iraqi government was faltering and Baghdad was under threat from Islamists. Now that the direct threat to Iraqi territory has largely been lifted, the United States can abandon Kurdistan and support the central government. The U.S. position is clear: a divided Iraq has already been the breeding ground for immense instability in the region, and it is time to put an end to it. Regardless of whether a declaration of independence—even a legitimate one—were to emerge, the desire for regional stability would prevail.

This opinion is shared by the Iraqi Prime Minister in the columns of New York Times: «For three years, we have fought terrorists and defied the odds. We will not allow the Kurds to tear our country apart (…) Unilateral actions that violate the law threaten the stability of our entire country as well as that of our neighbors.» As a result, it is difficult to imagine independence for Iraqi Kurdistan in the near future. All the stars are aligned to prevent it.