Iraqi Kurdistan, impossible independence

On September 25, Iraqi Kurdistan held a referendum on possible independence from the Iraqi state. The outcome of the vote was expected to be a foregone conclusion, given the Kurdish people's desire to live under their own laws, even though the region has enjoyed considerable autonomy since the 2005 constitution came into force. From the Kurdish point of view, this vote is the logical outcome of the events that followed the rise of the «Islamic State» organization in Iraq and Syria, against which Kurdish forces have been actively engaged in fierce fighting.

Iraqi Kurdistan and its peshmerga fighters fought alongside the federal government and the US-led coalition, and succeeded in pushing the Islamist forces out of Iraq at the cost of many casualties. Having played a key role in the liberation of the country and grown considerably stronger as a region, Iraqi Kurdistan, through its president, found enough legitimacy to launch a referendum on independence. But this was without taking into account the interplay of powers in the Near and Middle East. Indeed, all the countries in the region, as well as the West and Russia, opposed the vote for different reasons. Nevertheless, the vote went ahead and Baghdad immediately took measures against the autonomous region, while not closing the door to discussions.

A form of betrayal

Over the past week, events have accelerated and the federal government has launched an offensive to retake the city of Kirkuk, which the Kurds occupied after driving out the «Islamic State» fighters. This city was not on the territory of the autonomous region, but within Iraq's borders. This brought to the surface a contradiction that had been present since the beginning of the fight against the terrorist organization: the US government was relying both on the Kurds, to whom it supplied equipment, and on the Iraqi government. The problem lies not only in the opposition of two forces that Washington supports, but also in the fact that the offensive in the Kirkuk region was also supported by militias backed by Iran. This turnaround by the United States was seen by some as a betrayal.

Iranian influence

One thing's for sure: Baghdad had to ask for the green light from the United States, which supported the action. The latter certainly haven't forgotten the important Iranian influence within the Iraqi government. Indeed, Teheran wishes to increase its control over the region to avoid an independent Kurdish state, which would push Kurdish communities on its own territory to demand the same treatment. Kurdistan has been dropped by the United States, which is now on the same side as Iran on the Kurdish question. How can we not think of the current climate in which Trump refuses to support the nuclear agreement and wants to strengthen sanctions on Teheran?

The end of a contradiction and reconstruction

Overall, support for Kurdistan and Iraq was not sustainable in the long term. The United States urgently needed allies on the ground in the war against Daesh at a time when the Iraqi government was faltering and Baghdad was threatened by Islamists. Now that the direct threat to Iraqi territory has largely been removed, the US can let go of Kurdistan and support the central government. The American position is clear: a divided Iraq has already been the breeding ground for immense instability in the region, and it's time to put an end to it. No matter how legitimate a declaration of independence might be, the desire for regional stability will prevail.

This opinion is shared by the Iraqi Prime Minister in the columns of New York TimesWe have fought terrorists and prognosticators for three years. We will not allow the Kurds to tear our country apart (...) Unilateral actions that violate the law threaten the stability of our country as a whole, as well as that of our neighbors.« It is therefore difficult to imagine independence for Iraqi Kurdistan in the near future. All the planets are aligned to prevent it.