Vladimir Putin: Old World authoritarian or peerless strategist?

News Mondays - Diego Taboada

Blamed by most Western countries for major contemporary geopolitical upheavals (Ukraine, Syria), the Russian president has restored Russia's status as a world power. A look back at the strategy and key events that led to the current situation.

It all begins with the fall of the Soviet Union. It's «the end of history», the advent of a new world order embodied by the United States and its allies. The Western liberal model took hold. Bipolar opposition gave way to an ideal of promoting peace and democracy, and economic interdependence between states. This project is characterized by the eastward expansion of NATO and the European Union, and the co-option of countries such as Hungary, Poland and the Baltic states, historically close to the USSR.

Self-defence or expansionism?

For Putin, the logic of the Cold War is still valid, nothing has changed. He does not believe in the cooperation between countries that the dominant liberal theory assumes. The world remains divided into two opposing blocs, each seeking to dominate the other. This continued expansion is perceived as a threat and aggression. The spread of Western ideals in countries close to Russia is seen as a maneuver to encroach on its zone of influence.

The West's desire to integrate Georgia and Ukraine is yet another provocation for the Russian leader. He is convinced that this is nothing more than a pretext to «seize» countries that are strategically essential to Russia - in particular, access to the Black Sea. This is an unacceptable threat. Its troops entered Georgia in 2008. This is the first warning.

The removal of pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych in 2014 is once again being seen as an attack on Russia and its influence among its neighbors. Putin sees the West as supporting the coup. The invasion of Crimea and eastern Ukraine followed. Once again, it's a question of defending its territory, endangered by the actions of the United States and its allies.

In this «realistic» view, it is the West that has provoked Russia by trying to draw the countries of Eastern Europe into its orbit. So Russian military action is nothing more than self-defense? It's hard to believe. Direct Russian military action, symbolized by the intervention in Crimea, is Putin's way of making people forget the humiliation of the collapse of the USSR. The man has ambitions for his country. If Greater Russia is to rise from the ashes, it must restore its former glory and influence by recovering «lost» territories. In addition to a defense mechanism, military intervention is probably also part of the Russian president's wider plan to make Russia a major player on the international stage.

The war in Syria: a paradigm shift

But if the world continues to be a fragile balance between two powers, wouldn't too brutal an intervention in neighboring countries risk provoking a reaction from its adversaries? Why does Putin no longer hesitate to carry out «ostentatious» military operations, as in Ukraine in 2014 or during the bombings in Syria, in support of the regime in place, ignoring Western warnings?

Read also: Has Russia once again become a world power?

The change takes place during the war in Syria. In 2013, Syrian dictator Assad is accused of using chemical weapons during the crackdown on protests. Obama's famous red line was crossed. The United States, which had said it would intervene, finally backed down and accepted Russia's proposal to send UN teams to dismantle the chemical arsenal. For some, this was a sign of maturity, a wise decision to avoid the Afghan and Iraqi fiascos at all costs. But Putin sees it as an admission of weakness. The Americans have become skittish and timid. The status of superpower and «world policeman» is a thing of the past. If Putin was hesitating about the modalities of intervention in Ukraine, there's no longer any doubt: he can go ahead, the way is clear. The Americans will no longer intervene.

The strategy of recent years has paid off. Russia has once again become an essential geopolitical power. There no longer seems to be any obstacle to Russian hegemony, a country that no longer hesitates to interfere directly in internal American and European affairs. The Trump administration, entangled in scandals of collaboration with Russian agents in the manipulation of the last American elections, seems conciliatory and defends a rapprochement with Russia. Europeans, on the other hand, are busier dealing with their internal problems and, being too weak, are struggling to put up a united front. Putin can only congratulate himself on the culmination of a project developed step by step by exploiting events and the weaknesses of his adversaries. Russia is back, and well set to stay.

Write to the author: diego.taboada@leregardlibre.com

Photo credit: © President of Russia