The geopolitics of the Arctic

Le Regard Libre N° 41 - Clément Guntern

Even if some still doubt it, global warming has become a certainty, with the most spectacular effects felt at the northern and southern ends of the Earth. This new situation has altered the interplay of interests between nations, especially in the north.

With global warming, the legendary routes of the northeast and northwest —the routes between the Atlantic and the Pacific, through northern Russia and Canada, respectively—which had been painstakingly conquered over centuries by explorers from around the world, are gradually opening up to navigation for increasingly longer periods. The appetite of both coastal countries and major trading nations is growing just as much for the prospects of accelerating global trade as for the exploitation of new sources of raw materials. In what is shaping up to be a «new conquest,» we must not forget that it will not truly be one. And for good reason: the true era of adventurers and conquest began long ago in Canada’s Far North—and even earlier in Siberia and Russia’s Far North. It is essential to remember that the conquest of these vast, hostile expanses was achieved at the cost of countless human lives—whether it was Robert Peary’s fingers when he believed he had reached the North Pole, or, more significantly, the thousands of Gulag prisoners who died in the conquest of the ice while building monstrous railroad lines across the tundra. The Pole has had its share of famous and unknown heroes who helped to tame these hostile lands, at least to some extent.

In the 16th century^th For centuries, Europeans have believed that a northern route exists leading to China and the Far East, through which they hope to conduct trade with Asian kingdoms. The idea of using the Northeast Passage for commercial purposes is therefore not a new one. In addition to commercial ambitions, two other factors have come into play since the 16th^th two main factors have driven the push northward throughout the century: raw materials and military interests. As for Russia, metals replaced furs and were themselves supplanted by natural gas and, above all, oil as the driving force behind the conquest. And the determination of the nations bordering the Arctic Circle to exploit new deposits of whatever kind is not about to fade. As for the military, control and use of the Northeast Passage remain the backbone of Russia’s defense strategy. For a country as vast as Russia, where the majority of its wealth and population is concentrated in European Russia, the ability to navigate along its northern coast is essential if it is to effectively defend its Far Eastern region. Today, the nuclear deterrent adds another layer to these strategic considerations, since the polar regions are home to the bulk of Russia’s nuclear arsenal. These factors also apply to a large extent—though to a lesser degree—to the other countries bordering the Arctic Ocean, namely the United States (including Alaska), Canada, Norway, and Denmark (including Greenland). 

Due to climate change, the Arctic remains a region with great potential but, above all, one fraught with uncertainty. The retreating ice is opening up new opportunities not only for countries bordering the Arctic Circle but also for more distant nations such as China and the European Union. The lands of Greenland, currently covered by glaciers, as well as the seas surrounding the Arctic, will eventually be open to mining and oil exploration. The same is true for shipping lanes, which are increasingly breaking free from the grip of the cold. However, these entirely new economic opportunities raise sensitive questions regarding the national sovereignty of states over these maritime zones, which are governed by the international law of the sea as set forth in the Montego Bay Treaty. This treaty governs zones of full sovereignty (very close to the coasts) and exclusive economic zones within which states may exploit natural resources. The question arises as to the extent of these areas: who has the right to exploit a particular part of the polar seas? Furthermore, tensions are arising regarding freedom of navigation in these strategic straits. Some countries, such as Canada, maintain that the Northwest Passage lies within waters under its sovereignty, which implies that ships flying a flag other than Canada’s would need to request permission to transit. Other nations—and not the least significant ones, such as the United States—have consistently advocated for complete freedom of navigation worldwide. Tensions have already arisen between the United States and Canada, even though the Northwest Passage is not yet fully open to navigation.

With the aim of fostering cooperation, the Arctic Council was established, comprising neighboring countries as member states and any state that wishes to do so as an observer. As a sign of the world’s growing interest in these regions, new observers are admitted to the organization every year. However, the Arctic Council’s success can be attributed to the nature of the issues it addresses, as topics such as politics and military affairs are excluded from its scope. But it is precisely these «high-level political» issues that are the source of most tensions. Not only do states with a long-standing presence in these regions seek to consolidate their positions, but so do newcomers of considerable stature and growing ambition who are determined to have their say. This is the case with China, which, as is its custom, has long been making strategic moves and gaining a foothold in the Arctic. Its interests are clear: a Northern Sea Route would cut the transit time for its export goods by several days. With this in mind, the Greenlandic self-governing government has received financial support from Beijing to promote future Chinese mining operations on the island, weaken ties with Denmark, and potentially push Nuuk toward greater independence from Copenhagen. Similarly, during the 2008 financial crisis that brought Iceland to its knees, China offered $500 million in aid to help rebuild the Icelandic financial system. It is impossible not to see an ulterior motive on Beijing’s part, as it seeks bases near the Northern Sea Route.

All of these situations represent potential sources of tension between major commercial and military powers. Once navigation becomes possible during the summer and the ice recedes from certain resource-rich regions, the great power rivalry can truly begin. Despite this growing appetite, the extraction of minerals, oil, and gas remains uncertain. This is due to a lack of profitability and technology that is still insufficient for extracting resources in hostile regions. Discussions in recent years have unfortunately tended to present global warming as a fait accompli rather than a problem to be solved. How can we fail to see the many fragile species living in the polar regions that would be destroyed by the disappearance of the ice? The Arctic is destined to become a geopolitical issue solely because humans have, through their recklessness, contributed to climate change in these regions.

Agree or disagree? Any praise or criticism?

Write to the author : clement.guntern@leregardlibre.com