Russia: the post-Putin era in question following the protests

News Mondays - Clément Guntern

Last week and the week before, approximately 2,000 Russian citizens were arrested in Moscow while peacefully demonstrating for freer elections. Ahead of the local elections, the government had disqualified independent candidates, leaving only the Communists and ultra-nationalists—who are not truly opposed to Moscow—unscathed within the opposition ranks.

Furthermore, since the beginning of the year, a growing number of high-ranking officials and elected officials have been arrested across the country on charges of corruption or economic crimes. At the same time, warnings have multiplied from all sides about the country’s situation: health care, employment, and the environment are all areas in which Russia has been in a precarious situation for quite some time.

On the international stage, the country appears to be increasingly isolating itself from the West due to its intervention in Syria and its high-handed actions in both the Skripal affair and the U.S. presidential election. So far, the president’s prestige and his image as a strongman—the only one capable of turning the country around—have allowed him to remain the undisputed leader of Russia. But clouds are gathering over Russian society and the economy, especially since Vladimir Putin does not intend to run for re-election after 2024. This could leave a huge void, leading to a series of power struggles.

Read also: Vladimir Putin: An Authoritarian Leader of the Old World or an Unparalleled Strategist?

These already foreseeable challenges of political transition will undoubtedly be exacerbated by a political and institutional system built on foundations that have been severely weakened over the past few decades. The protests of recent weeks are evidence of unrest and the lack of a framework for a peaceful transition. Electoral rules are being flouted, and the judiciary is anything but independent and impartial—which does not bode well for the post-2024 period.

For Russia is a true democracy only in appearance. In reality, it is a regime of appearances that knows how to maneuver to hide its true face. False information circulates and consistently seeks to delegitimize the words of opponents by sowing doubt, arbitrary arrests are carried out under the guise of the law and for relatively short periods so as not to draw attention away from election manipulation—all without ever truly crossing the line that would push the Kremlin into the camp of overt dictatorships.

This is the new face of authoritarianism in a world where it is increasingly less accepted. It hides and evolves within the murky boundaries of interpretation and fallacious justification. The appearance of law is not the law, and that is precisely what defines the European family today. The fires ravaging eastern Siberia—which, until recently, Moscow had shown little concern for—are in fact a symbol of Putin’s actions. He would rather suffer great losses than allow his honor—and the honor he attributes to Russia—to be tarnished.

Write to the author: clement.guntern@leregardlibre.com

Photo credit: Wikimedia / CC BY-SA 4.0