War in the Taiwan Strait: three scenarios

The fateful moment is approaching. Never before has the People's Republic of China (PRC) been so ready to undertake its historic mission: to complete the reunification of China and wash away the affronts of a century of humiliation. Beijing has long been preparing for this, as have Taipei and Washington. While all options are on the table, there is no guarantee that this operation will be the prelude to a new confrontation between the great powers. Here are three main scenarios, and the issues that underlie them.

For several months now, Chinese incursions into Taiwanese air and sea space have been on the increase. With each passing day, the fighter jets of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) come ever closer to colliding with their island adversaries. In the strait separating Taiwan from the mainland, ships from both fleets have already risked engaging with each other on several occasions.