China's apprenticeship to power

Le Regard Libre N° 46 – Clément Guntern

In the Western media, fascination with a country offering tremendous opportunities is mixed with apprehension about a giant that seems poised to take its place on the world stage. One aspect that has captured everyone’s attention is the New Silk Roads initiative. Here’s an explanation of the phenomenon.

Until Xi Jinping, the current president of the People’s Republic of China, took office, the country’s policy had been to keep a low profile. The great reformer Deng Xiaoping had articulated this vision of a China that would peacefully take its place as its economy grew. Now that its economic power is firmly established, Beijing is seeking to transform economic capital into political capital. And confrontation is no longer off the table—not necessarily militarily, but diplomatically and economically, as part of an expansionist policy of national assertiveness. 

A Global Ambition

Xi Jinping’s ambition is truly global. China is not yet the center of the world, but it aspires to become one. And to achieve that, it must be able to play an even greater role in world politics. The horizon that political leaders are aiming for is 2049—the centennial of the Communist Revolution in China. The goal? To showcase how far the country has come and to establish the link between the Communist Party and China’s current status as a world power. Announcements of massive projects and ambitious programs have helped forge an image of boundless power—demographic, economic, and political alike.

However, we tend to fear China too much or overestimate it, because its leaders themselves are aware of the country’s limitations. The nation will not maintain the same growth momentum forever, and it is time to prepare for that moment. The first signs of an aging population, slowing growth, and the trade crisis with the United States have all served as brakes on the country’s rapid advance. The time has come to prepare for a more measured China.

We must find ways to carve out a place for ourselves before we are no longer able to do so. As the flagship of this renewal, Chinese leaders have developed the New Silk Roads initiative, which would connect all of Asia, Europe, and much of Africa to China. All of this will be achieved through ports, airports, roads, and infrastructure of all kinds. But what specific goal is China pursuing? Not only to find markets for Chinese goods and services, but also to translate economic power into political power by expanding China’s influence beyond its borders. 

A country without alliances

Since Beijing has no alliances with other countries—apart from North Korea—the Communist Party must establish outlets for its power around the world to stabilize its environment. It does so through alliances and by imposing norms and standards. According to a traditional Chinese view, the country must bring the world under its roof. But Beijing still lacks experience in the realm of global politics. In this regard, the Chinese are hindered by a historical vision of imperial power that dominated neighboring kingdoms, which in turn were required to pay tribute. Perhaps the Middle Kingdom believes that this situation still holds true today and that, in the face of its power, other countries will follow the path it has laid out for them.

China's Obstacles

But the international order is very different today for two reasons. The first is that many countries are highly reluctant to accept Chinese support. This is one of China’s shortcomings. This is particularly true with regard to debt, since the infrastructure for the New Silk Roads will be financed by Chinese loans to transit countries. The risk—which countries like Malaysia have recognized—is that these nations may not always have the means to repay these loans, and that the infrastructure would then fall into Chinese hands. This would be an infringement on their national sovereignty. Malaysia has therefore changed its mind and asked China to revise the terms under which financing is provided.

These are situations of internal conflict that will need to be managed in each country. Conflicts that the Chinese Communist Party is not necessarily accustomed to managing, since, within its own borders, it controls everything. In some democratic countries in the region, as well as in more authoritarian ones, internal conflicts exist and could hinder the progress of China’s project. Will Beijing be able—and have the means—to resolve these problems? Furthermore, with these projects costing trillions, will China—even with its colossal financial power—be able to continue its efforts if the countries that have borrowed money fail to repay their debts? 

The second reason is that there are alternatives to China. New alliances are forming, and other players are also entering the infrastructure market in Asia. Foremost among them is Japan, which seeks to regain influence in Asian and global affairs. It is planning significant investments in infrastructure and is setting itself apart by criticizing the poor quality of Chinese infrastructure. India, too, has ambitions. It hopes to create, together with Japan, a «democratic» axis to counter China—an axis that would offer an alternative to China’s lack of transparency. Then there are powers such as Australia—the only country with a favorable trade balance with China—the United States—which wants to invest again—and the EU, all of which are emerging as key players.

It is therefore also a battle over the standards that govern international relations. Whoever is able, through large-scale trade agreements, to impose their own rules on the greatest number of countries will have a head start. This is what President Obama understood when he launched a sweeping trade agreement that brought together countries around the Pacific, with the exception of China. The goal was to marginalize Beijing and promote the adoption of U.S. standards in the region. Since President Trump withdrew from that agreement, Japan has taken the reins and appears to be emerging as one of the region’s leading nations. 

The trade conflict that the U.S. president has launched with China is part of the same trend. Tariffs on Chinese exports are causing Beijing to have second thoughts, as it watches its economy buckle under American pressure. This is yet another reason for Xi Jinping to build a protective ring around his country to secure its place in the world: the New Silk Roads.

China, therefore, faces a slow learning process. It must succeed in finding a place in the world that is commensurate with its economic clout. Beijing must learn to use its economic and financial power to secure a political foothold. Flooding the world with its money will not be enough to become a stable global power with a significant sphere of influence—especially since the country is not without its internal conflicts. Once China has fully learned to navigate this world, it will be able to become a major power.

Write to the author: clement.guntern@leregardlibre.com