Skripal affair: the investigation and the diplomatic stakes

News Mondays - Hélène Lavoyer

Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia - aged 66 and 33 respectively - were poisoned on March 4 in Salisbury, England. The country's Prime Minister, Theresa May, is pointing the finger at Russia. While the American and French governments support this hypothesis, many points remain unclear.

During the 1990s, Sergei Skripal worked as a double agent for the UK while still a colonel in Russia's General Intelligence Directorate (GRU). During this period, the man is suspected of having delivered information - notably concerning the places and times of meetings of Russian agents - to England.

In December 2004, he was arrested by the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation and sentenced to thirteen years' imprisonment in 2006. In 2010, he was pardoned by Dmitry Medvedev - then President of Russia - and settled in Salisbury, England.

The battle rages on

Sunday March 4: Sergei and his daughter are found unconscious on a bench by passers-by, and taken to hospital in Salisbury. Two days later, Boris Johnson, the UK's current Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, announces that it is too early to pinpoint a culprit, but adds that «Russia is an “evil and disruptive” force in the world» and that «the UK will take the lead in tackling its activities».

As early as March 9, decontamination troops and chemical control professionals joined forces with the police to further the investigation, and soon afterwards, people who had frequented the same places as Sergei and Yulia - a bar and a restaurant - on March 4 and 5 were asked to wash their clothes as a precautionary measure.

External support

Theresa May made her maiden speech in the House of Commons on March 11, announcing that the nerve agent used to poison the two victims, the Notvichok, was developed (can you think of a better verb?) by the Soviet Union during the Cold War. I don't understand how you can actually develop a person, Novitchok is the poison used!) by the Soviet Union during the Cold War. She adds that the attack «probably came from Russia».

The affair of state is becoming international, and Presidents Macron and Trump are also quick to accuse Russia. «Everything leads us to believe that responsibility is indeed attributable to Russia, and in this the work carried out by the British services shared with the French services confirms it. [...] France therefore condemns this unacceptable attack on the soil of an allied country in the strongest possible terms, and I would like to express my solidarity with Theresa May», declared Emmanuel Macron during his visit to Indre-et-Loire on March 15.

A jumble of inconsistencies

Despite the apparent Russian responsibility, many voices are being raised, particularly in the journalistic world, to counter this already almost proven culpability. First of all, the events just preceded President Putin's re-election, which took place on March 18. Such an action on the part of the Russian government would have been counterproductive and clearly dangerous for Vladimir Putin's reputation. But there is more to it than that.

It's one thing for Russia to want Sergei dead for revenge. But why not have him killed when he was being held in prison on Russian soil? For some, it was a warning to other spies who might be tempted to collaborate with foreign governments that their lives and those of their family members would never be safe. However, there is no proof of this.

According to some analysts, it's important to remain cautious, given that this tragic event could represent a way for England to strengthen its ties with Europe, particularly Germany and France. The solidarity of the European Union member countries could mean one of two things: that it is to their advantage to isolate Russia, or that the evidence they have concerning its guilt is solid enough to be considered as such.

Too early for a statement

The words of Vassili Nebenzia, Russian ambassador to the UN - that «the presumption of innocence is being replaced by the presumption of guilt» - are not nonsense.

The speed of the accusations is astonishing, as are the measures taken by the British government. Indeed, twenty-three Russian diplomats have already been expelled from the country, and England has made it known that the royal family or those in government will not be visiting Russia on the occasion of the soccer World Cup (June-July 2018).

There are still many hypotheses as to the culprit: was it a deliberate operation by Putin's government? A flaw in their system, which allowed a third party to organize the poisoning? Or perhaps a breach by a British laboratory?

When such diplomatic issues arise, the public needs to be informed of all the possibilities. There's no doubt that Vladimir Putin, and the Russian government in general, have orchestrated some unsavory affairs. But isn't the same true of any government?

Write to the author: lavoyer.helene@gmail.com